The Banking and Strategy Initiative

Chillin' out till it needs to be funded

The Decoupling is over. Done. Kaput. | Advantage zyaada

I like Samir Arora of Alliance earlier/Helios now. And I loved Bloomberg’s coverage of the Budget. OK, that part was the blog add-on to the discussion. Here’s the Finance.

Yup, The Indian Budget anthill is officially crossed. With a $31 Billion Defence Budget it is a great segue for the global 2010 and Asian Markets would have been very important for Obama to cross if he had Healthcare ready. So, we open Monday with the humdrum discussion on Healthcare in Washington. That would be on our agenda too. This time serious Healthcare stuff. Why the Exchanges help? Why the noise on financing abortion through your Health Insurance? Why there is a need for expanding Medicare and why no one is cutting off the Seniors from the Medicare..

The next week however, is important in that individual agendas of Geographies like India, US and Europe are more or less over. Everyone needs the money and the fairest way to get there is to get a working business on. So, all markets everywhere go back in sync to Pound the Pound and support the Euro and let the Dollar find the right level. All markets would be watching for the next big IPOs the cash hungry Bank stocks and the Retail lifestyle / consumption boom. And just then would be the new statistics on housing and jobs. And then again, in 6-8 weeks China would be back in the news.

I am still of the opinion that no one will find time to fuel the OIL price boom this year, but then there is too much time left for 2010 to say that, and that could really murky the waters. And there is going to be a lot of Africa and the middle east on the radar too. I don’t know about Aussie. And of course, the most busy would be those following sport. IPL, NFL Draft, NBA finals and hair-raising bids for Football Clubs, IPL teams and TV rights for the extravaganza in Cricket, Football and NFL. F1 is up too, and we are praying for it.

There is also time for social business noise to prove and disprove the social model and the Google way. There is that extra spending money from cuts in taxes in India, the capital requirements of British and European Banks ( read Lloyds, RBS, Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank) and those new heroes that are going to be recruiting people back into Main street jobs.

To specifically address the inter-linkages globally, a lot of new ETFs are going to bloom and sovereigns would be looking for a safe haven instead of the shaky dollar, the worrying Euro and the depressed Pound. China is already buying into US retail companies. JP Morgan and GS are already expanding retail in Latam and buying retail in Asia. More Gold will be in currency, more Cars and TVs would be bought this year all over the world and we probably need something like a functioning Euro zone in some other parts of the world to come up with a failsafe way to tackle stable exports and global trade.

Money markets would probably manage without any whipsaws but a lot of sovereign debt and rating agencies and municipal fund-raising bonds are going to be trying to explain their spreads as the spreadeagled position becomes more of a common sight. Thanks for suffering this post. I really needed to pen the banter down this time. And best of luck to Religare and Reliance if they plan a bank roll out for their ambitions in Asia.

Of course now that we have mashed everything into one brain full, we also need to stress that double-digit billion dollar deals are easy enough to sign, but we need to get to a place where we can track them really closely before we jump into the next one.

And that India and US are not the only ones simplifying regulation.. Most of the world is officially democratic and open to global trade. If Australia, France, South Africa and China or any other need a bloc of their own, they need to say so louder and without a bankrupt wallet.

And yes after 10 years of global travel, Delhi’s infrastructure still looks like a role model to me. And I’m flying back to Bangalore with what all my small town cousins dreamt when leaving Delhi, transplant the working model to Bangalore, or wherever else you fly to. A lot of Delhi-ites would not mind leaving the dust and grime if there were more cities like this.

Would anyone buy the AIG IPO in asia? Would Metlife ever buy that portfolio now in the USA? Did you know real estate in more value for money Bangalore has fallen by 40% in two years while Delhi has actually appreciated by 10% in the lean period?

Auto sales all over the world and the rising access for Healthcare could be key takeaways globally in the next 8-10 months. Other infrastructure can follow sports events in this year from India to South Africa to Brazil and Beijing. However, just to say I am in my full senses, I am not recommending that you buy airlines’ scrips this year either. A lot of investment and precious little profit to show for it. Just like Telecom ‘Infrastructure’ before that like Ericsson and Lucent.


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