Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
The creative among you would think of PWC’s aborted consulting rebadging and rebranding operation of the nineties, the in-tune with India story sadly, worse off with brain waves about India and East Europe’s body shopping factories’ investiture again as the resurgent Outsourcing sector as you switch on your computers. Yes both these chains have been remunerative for staff to go about routine work of getting licenses , voters cards, comp offs and general group browsing for who would feed them the next trend.. all the free frit with guilt that government schools and semi tiled hole in the roof public school buildings have served them. Coal fired power stations and Higher Education are not being revolutionized in India, much like the transportation and healthcare bills in Obamaland ( If you did not get that, I was down to my last bare bloomers and calling the entire stimulus a transport bill, including the new jobs bill. ) It is just that Krugman and desperate unemployed BOP sympathizers and auto stand hecklers from Modern India at the airport really had me in a bad way with their monopoly over speaking, thinking and even writing on healthcare.
Yesterday I was also at the IPL match against Kings XI Punjab and there was some heckling there too, but the semi educated baccalaureate force that serves everything in Bangalore’s yuppy places wouldn’t heckle me unless I was Deepika Padukone or overflowing with new ideas and these waves lopping off to them for free..its mostly the no good senior staff and super senior debt with old clichés in pocket that thinks that such disrespect is the brilliant story for tomorrow.
Yet, here we are, you guys not interested in this banker unless there is an official subject matter and in there inside your head, you know this dumb banker can’t charge you even nuts for the professional stuff he may such dish out that would be worth squatting on.
So..I was at the Ugadi game, where Bangalore struck out on the poor shabby Kings XI from the Punjab and today the only paper I have read ids the Hindu. The stuff around my web, is mostly dull shavings off the myriad banking and investment subjects treated with care and detail here in the last 90 days.
Here are this Investment Bank’s official notes on the year of carnage and the vulture audits commissioned by equally slip shod and half-hearted ny times correspondents and the Fed inquiries commissioned on the Fed and the Treasury by the court , as described in “autopsy of Lehman by court appointed examiner”
The other papers are happier with moving ahead with the Tiger Woods branding story revival as he comes to the Nationals on April 8. Also we look fine with the Oliver Wyman report and have no locus standi in imagining that this peanut snack addicted drubbed lady or tub of lard reading the show’s star article will have any sense to comprehend it or need to appreciate when she can easily imagine herself taking a ride for free nut snack in the new Singapore roller coaster from Universal Studios. So there.
To put it in plain English, the banks and investment banks have to lose at least 15-20% of their top line as super normal gains go out of the capital markets and actually more of the debt investments head due south, Default spreads now being normal at below 300 ( In September 2008, Lehman and AIG had reported spreads of 612+) Two separate trends but both mean that Obama and the UK guv’nor are right is easing the pain on the banks with more taxes and punitive bans on trading. These regulations will take their problems deeper but I doubt if more than 1-2% drop in profits will be reported. Also, Deutsche Bank and at least one more European shop will report higher improvements in Turnover, as all find a common counter party. We expect a short rearing of the head of SIFMA somewhere in May June after all the audit reports have started eating dust on the top shelves.
Right now, it is important to know that AIG never wanted to pay its collateral demands and had next to no traders in is Financial Products shop, while Goldman Sachs and J P Morgan were turning up the heat on AIG and Lehman, with Citi reaching the altar (Lehman’s door) to chop off their head together with J P Morgan a morning in September a week away from Andy Sorkins’ guts and glory story rip off that hit the street. ( Our p’folio transaction history of the purchase of Citi and BofA as they hit 92 cent and lower respectively here )
Also as Krugman says so lucidly in posts all of last week and earlier, this week, Democrats bell the cat or bust on Healthcare all over again. Investments in China are not free frit to hand out on the internet and may be researched in own learning of the Shanghai Warriors that make their script but as of now they are in Coke, Visa and any retail icons you wanted to be America.
Also Coke and Pepsi are in a lot of Coke and Pepsi as well buying their bottlers for $8 bn each and buying back shares ( Pepsi) worth $15 bn. Back to the banks, it is not easy for them to go international with recent history and in the US the Volcker rule on Trading desks and the increase in TCE requirements as Basel III will become handy tools for internal reformists to spell doom for Bart McDades still employed by the larger stamps of Wall Street with even Repo 105 sounding like a personal crime , accounting getting away with the new IFRS standards trying to keep all assets visible on the balance sheet
People who used the crisis to get one on one on their bosses and ended with the Foxhole giving them the joyride south would not be in favor for recruiters who have been and will continue twiddling thumbs most of thus year and next. Those Dust devils and minute loafs in character also will not be in favor for well manicured and well browsed experimental leadership recruiting teams out to make a deal for adding their own stamp of liquid profits to leadership desks.
Sicker turds out to browse for free and use the free frit like on this site as base to say they are doing greater things have this post to make them aware of their seat and office dust devil politics with weevils and fair weather dry drains on office roads..Campuses are still the thing to shake off your disgust and white water rafting still smells in the East and in Latam and EE alternatives for executives hoping to catch up on being targeted by pay limitation rules. .
In short the banking world is more or less where it always was. Marketing spoons are busy with long dead PR campaigns and non existent Marketing offices created overnight in my banking sector and none calling me. Come to think of it , the phone hasn’t been ringing at my end and i think even Mahesh Murthy’s. International Banks will find it uneven and disastrous from the feminine eyes of Indian scouts and such scallywags they might employ for washroom chats, while local banks go gung ho on retail expansion esp in Asia as Real estate loans become profitable again. Bart McDades, Geithners, Flowers’ and others be advised that speaking up ofr looking for a vote of confidence is much like a women jumping on the grass ceiling in joy of having discovered it and might do well to not do the hula dance for a few years. But the salary cap tax will stay in words in the UK and in deeds of graduate batch employment in India and China where banks continue to push outsourcing operations despite Citi trying to show everyone it learned otherwise.
New Islands in China and new roller coasters in Singapore may have a future but Capital Market investing may not grow beyond the 15-20% market in India, while in China even if it grows, Chinese would do well to take their government’s cue and invest in America, Dow is by far the sunniest. Water is greener instead of the grass in Oceania as commodities catch up with the cloud and end in dust.
Banking locally whether it is US or China, India and Australia would be most profitable for the Advisory profession while doers might get stuck with shops and shopping this entire year. Malls, Movies and More Rides are heading India’s Lifestyle Budgets and budget hotels and motel chains all turned out in glory to catch travelers. That still leaves me with unhappy HR departments and useless scum otherwise floating thinking they can jam me with unemployment feeds with or without telling me. Monday indeed. I am one persecuted George Clooney waiting to be recruited to be the CEO of a large investment bank in Hollywood, Dalal Street, Hang Seng and noted in the FTSE Indices and Shanghai Super shares, the sooner the better..for all of you!