Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
I think a healthy discussion on results is a step up for Asian markets in the efficient markets stage, for Efficient Markets Hypothesis itsef or other theoretical constructs not singularly dependent on lack of flowing inside informationa nd compromised trades as a basis of efficient/semi-efficient markets..
While it is already established that the Dollar has lost its prominence, Mortgage losses will plague big banks ($30bn expected this year), Greece is not the last sovereign, Outsourcing has plateaued (another revered ‘maturity’ frontier) in growth and equally significantly, all that discussion of a hole has left people hungry for American Equity , making it likely that it will even outperform Shanghai this year and who knows, cross 20000 even. This hunger makes you jump a lot of wall of expectations, without unduly being a sacrificial animal in ritual prayers and without your detractors having recourse to much as you are at the nadir of the morass.
Infosys will continue to outperform Asian expectations and as one of the first results globally, discussing the same will statutorily fulfill your obligations towards knowing Asian banks’/company results while playing trades in each such sector in Asia that may give the 10% emerging portfolio in a diversified fund, the required fillip in gains for redemption season and avoiding moral fractures like Madoff’s plays.
With results from Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Bank of America ( the last two this week, tomorrow and Friday) and even Citi likely to report lower profits and JP Morgan reporting higher write-downs, a flood of stories on which parcel of securities ( witness the WaMu and AIG-GS stories today in @nytimes, @WSJ) caused maximum ‘Collateral’ Damage in 2008. Notwithstanding the fact that AIG’s Cash call was for $45 billion mid September and its sub-prime Abacus portfolio from GS only $14 bn ( now whittled to a miniscule $1.4bn) will remain the highlighted culprit. Lehman’s transgressions in accounting have already taken a back seat and it seems the Big 4 do not need independent PR departments to manage the press which is acting like schoolboy scouts passing around the candy from big brother.
With approval ratings at all time lows, Government is also busy away from commenting on the banks and the markets. It is a rosy time for the markets when the regulatory reform process has slowed to a trickle and we have business on the table even as the markets have already seemingly discounted all the bad news to 2011. Even an Infosys will grow about 25% ( Guidance promises up to 20% ) as Dollar falls another 10% over 2010 and Q1 of 2011 and locals Google and Apple redefine the field where they wuld be competing .Te focus on utilities and infrastructure will bring a lot of goodies for the market and Financial Structuring will keep throwing up conundrums the market can resume breaking down after markets have closed for the day. The high unemployed population ( 40% of the population) will remain unemployed for 3-4 years even as markets celebrate the new optimism in inventory and Jobs additions.
With WaMu’s restructuring plans approved and United going thru merger season with new questions, a lot of other results will also become important but Health and Lifestyle sectors remain the most engaging covering a gamut of industries and nations’ stocks for the ‘ultimate’ investment basket. Turf wars between regulators and China’s new floating Yuan would not be that big a mover of the markets as the rest above. For example, the regions banks for China and India would still dwarf in comparison to JP Morgan and Citi in Latin America and the Indian media would still be counting my birth town as basis to report me on page 1 even as it becomes home to the largest audience in the world..