Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
No, Gordon wasn’t the Elvis. The industry and probably the complete knowledge economy were however a disastrous last step for Britain to assert its salaried classes on the commonwealth and lead. In that they have failed. The Lib Dems and David Cameroon would not leave any stone unturned to win a stable ballot by pushing the banking industry to the wall.
Mr Brown however has delivered us David Miliband possibly as an able shadow chancellor and in keeping with history, that makes UK stable but the commonwealth is unlikely to go on with the business of the banks inside without a much fluttering heartin dy to day work that precludes expansion, growth and any rants against ‘death by taxes’ now to focus on the just recuperating rock, Barclays and Lloyds. Deutsche Bank also has substantial operations out of London and RBS is anyway currently reeling under sales of more profit making businesses than it can bleed to keep the competition commission happy. Any negotiation with the EC appointee are precluded by firstly Fortis having done that with BNP on the calendar and secondly with new politicos neither in time nor in favor of any such ‘weak’ actions from the EU leaders – “Britain”
Bank of England’s back breaking regulatory oversight apart, Vince Cable is likely to bring in an immediate separation of retail and trading/investment banking units, new taxes and imposition of curbs on bonuses. These of course are much required for entities like Cazenove which have really muddied the waters for operational and progressive units at Lloyds and great old HSBC. The already dead private equity and hedge fund sectors in the nation state of course continue to mean rejoicing for the masses and the bankers alike but the IPO/debt markets are unlikely to come back in a hurry. In planning terms, Vince may even want to think of staying a deflationary Tokyo as a “stable” option but what matters is that Britain continues to be on the path of leaning towards union friendly excesses on common sense that destroy the fabric of that state and the European Finances as a whole every day. Despite indications to the contrary , their options remain severly limited to expotrting their human talent globally much like outsourcing nations and hope to survive but they haven’t succeeded much at that till now.
Yes, the detractors are back. Though the business is stable and clients are not moving outsourcing processes and the bug dives from Indian, Philipino or East European and Mexico shores, this business which has much been the spawn of the Banking and Financial Services Industry and the raft of the Consulting specialists has stopped being a paying proposition and not much new business will be added to the annuity $300 odd billion in this industry around the world much to the chagrin of penny buyers in Accenture, IBM and other defunct process captives. In a home truth to break all home truths, outsourcing has much been a political stunt for emerging market investments and saving legacy processes / redundant jobs and other waste that we live with inside offices without recycling. In that, the new recruiters have started heating their tools for an antiseptic second edition of this employment statistic driving industry.
However, anti outsourcing stnces , very pronounced during campaigning may soon become the staple diet of politicians in need of another smoke screen as Europe goes down. Resulting holds, notably on the GBP 600 bn pensions and insurance project for TCS or other local government, definitely doesn’t saugur well for those looking at new bids. It’s a shame however that the soundness of the logic of spwawning cost reducing outsourcing could not be used to save the i bankers or the economies that supported them. Given that it is driven by the genuine business need for controlling costs, those that have braved the conditions to go ahead will continue to find the economic justification.
As far as India is concerned, SCB is listing here before the end of the month and if HSBC is next, both can easily be granted a second home here. Deutsche Bank is also expanding here, although they are all on the retail lifestyle calendar and not much good in the business of trading and corporate finance.