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The Hindenburg Omen vs the Dealmakers | Advantage zyaada

HSBC in Kolkata
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Ahead of the market’s extended pessimism about the US economy and the continuing struggles for the Euro and the AUD, many observers were listening with rapt attention as a UBS analyst brought forth the hidden Advance Decline ratio based ‘prophecy’ like prediction for a market failure. However the Dow has been pretty steady and a little correction would have little reason to turn into a crash. The Hindenburg Omen is based on the difference of the 39 Day Advances over declines(A-D) from the 19 day A-D catching a bearish tone and on 52W Highs outrunning new 52 Week lows by twice and more. As such, its continued success or failure would not worry market participants much.

Escape to Africa

Banks have finally kicked off their public agenda about expanding after a 2 year hiatus from the crisis with large deals dotting the landscape including deals by Asian companies and Banks expanding in Asia and Africa. HSBC picks up 52% in Nedbank from Old Mutual and another 15-20% from the market for an affordable $6 billion, giving the ICBC owned Standard Bank a run for its money in 33 African countries.

Deals also continued to show resilience in terms of bigger value propositions and a stronger well researched case in almost each case except the one off deal by Intel and the coming downturn ( not the double dip) can well be avoided if the businesses focus on producing better earnings and facts that hel[ed them during the recession continue to be borne out. Specific winners are already discernible from the earnings season that just went past.

Here’s the original Omen scoop and the Dealbook story from Bloomberg

Speciality ETFs tracking Deals

What is equally obvious esp to investors in Global ETFs , is that while Emerging Market Bonds remain a very good investment right now ( try PCY, EMB) the deal market also throws up interesting opportunities instead of going to the much under watch Hedge Funds and Quant players and for those with no access to Asian, European or US dark pools ( In the US these offline markets are already 10% compared to just 1% here in Singapore and Hongkong) In fact, seekingalpha regular Jared Cummins published this gem last week showing investors and discerning analysts to the MNA fund

Those intrigued by ETFs would have to invest more time with Scott’s monthly ETF lists here and here

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