The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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Having fun with the US Jobs report | Advantage zyaada

You know the Green Bay Packers superbowl tryst with the Steelers that puts them at a 0-8 disadvantage coming into the dome after a decade when the Steelers have won it the 6 times that they played in the dome plus a two attempts against likely NFC East title holders. However, such simplifications can mar your analysis when you tackle the Jobs report unless you have the Defence just right like the Steelers:

A Linebackers (Inside ILB and Outside OLB):  The Jobs report is based on surveys of people and establishments. The January edition has a lot of standard corrections from infrequent statistics like reducing a lot of Birth-death numbers in the establishments. Last 4 to 5 years the number of jobs reduced has grown from 200,000 jobs to almost 500,000 Jobs in 2010 may be because a lot of companies packed up and have gone and the new comers have already been reporting ( starting assumption) 

B. Tackles (LT,RT) and Corner : Wait for alternate sources, compare with GDP ISM reports and even housing starts. If they have been all well, this number is haunting you from the behind. The ADP report alreadylanded the snap in the team with 145000 additions. A clearer picture emerges when 90% of the establishments report next month as opposed to 65% reporting in January because of the snow

C. Guards:(LG, RG): The Establishment surveys this week were conducted in a week of snowstorms. Also investors have to step in here even if the scrimmage could not scratch the bad taste from the mouth as they know what to expect already, esp the bad numbers. GDP growth and positive ISM surveys that show almost double digit groth month on month are hard to negate especially with the value of the impetus in the service economy.

D. Safeties: Free Safety / Strong Safety (GO Troy Polamalu) : The big fork in the road we got from the unemployment report as Unemployment report went to 9.0% from 9.5% has happened as it is based on the establishment survey and yet the numbers would be advanced because of the revisions next month Private payrolls that reported only 50,000 additions are the likeliest culprits wit the ADP data already available DoL suggests 850,000 missed work because of snow and thus no payroll survey for them (the people survey that creates new job numbers)

E. Defensive End(DE): If you are still around instead of reading up Stark and/or “Big Snack” Hampton from last year or watching Darth Vader on the VW ads, you can also see the bullish strengths in the US market is here to stay based on the consumer spending an d Confidence numbers you can guess the missing numbers in the People surveys as they were never contacted maybe because the under the radar hiring will keep adding back to the people numbers in the employed category as the new “births” are contacted for payroll lists


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