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IMF for the Emerging Markets; World Bank for you?

IMF Headquarters, Washington, DC.

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Or, could the IMF be for Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Zhu Min or Kemal Dervish

First of all, to be fair to compatriot Montek Singh Ahluwalia, he has explicitly refused to be drawn into this exercise very clearly. China is of course ineligible at this stage a managed currency float not a good example for a global multilateral institution. The argument in having Christine Lagarde, Alex Weber or someone from BRIC/Emerging markets that stands is very simple. Europe is being restructured, The Emerging Markets , so-called would be more material than the US and Europe developed ones vs the simple fact that Lipsky has already worked on the agenda and someone from Europe even after Lipton replaces him, will be able to handle Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and the rest of the peripherals.

The argument in its reading gives the experienced Kemal Dervish an automatic advantage being on both sides of the argument, but then the power equation could easily favor anyone being lobbied, Christine Lagarde likely unopposed as the EMs refuse to fight publicly with a specific nomination unless the demand for an EM head is put back on the agenda and Lipsky/David Lipton(nominated by US as the new Deputy replacing Acting MD John Lipsky when he moves out in August.

If however a French FM is chosen after the internal arguments with Germany/UK and the agenda for the Emerging Markets, the IMF booty is likely to be passed around without opinion to keep controversy at bay and thus the institution will likely lose focus over the 5 year term. There longstanding candidates like Alex Weber and Kamal have a first mover advantage and Strauss Kahn’s recommendation would not matter in the new scheme of things Armenio Fragas (Brazil ) or Agustin Carstens (Mexico) are also variously represent weaknesses, monetary and in terms of international acceptance and should probably wait 5 years for China to first become fully convertible, but do stand a good non sectorial neutral chance for nomination and backing across the board if national duties are not paramount

As the Afternoon sun grows longer in Asia/India, Kemal has indeed emerged as the likeliest candidate. A pertinent bio extract from business insider as mainstream press will start the publications in hours:

A decade ago Turkey got into a Greek-style budget deficit problem where almost everybody expected Turkey to default. Turkish Prime Minister asked Dervis to leave his post at the World Bank and help him with the budget and debt crisis. Dervis cut a deal with the IMF and went on to implement the plan. He was so successful that Turkey didn’t default on its debt and started to grow at a very healthy pace again. However, Erdogan’s AKP won the elections in 2002 and reaped all the benefits of Dervis’ hard work. Between 2002 and 2007, the Turkish economy grew by more than 7% annually, thanks to declining interest rates and the implementation of an IMF-backed programme that was struck by Dervis. Turkish economy went back to its mediocre performance after the IMF agreement ended in early 2008.

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One comment on “IMF for the Emerging Markets; World Bank for you?

  1. Pingback: Emerging Markets: India remains such a bad deal, I can get proxies for it anywhere | The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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