Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
A glimmer of hope from the Case Shiller index hides the deep rut in the housing market behind it as Housing markets in the US are today at the same prices they were in 2003, the CS index at around 135 for the new 20 city average. That average is lower than the 10 year average and is falling faster and deeper even as prices moved up in April 2011 by a small fraction. Over four statistics on housing that take the first half of the week, the tell tale 1% inflation, the dropping consumer sentiment and the rising retail sales, again and again they have the same story to tell. We are done with the crisis, but is the crisis done yet?
The Global Emerging Markets have still got a mandate but the US equity market continue to stay on the up bouncing back twice already in the past 4 weeks. The GDP figures , if anything will be stronger and the IEA action releasing 60 million barrels of crude from its emergency inventory is keeping Oil prices in a lower orbit. What has succeeded, is not one leadership style or governance ethic but a people together in a very well defined picture, in no small measure without grains or fuzz as the details in the Statistics do capture a sense of what is needed next. However, to all objects, the answer is to print more money as the answer for corporates is to employ lesser and lesser people.
The so called emerging markets and the new ones in the G20 and outside will nevertheless strive to and get more statistics too over the next few years, but will it be bigger banks and larger governments? The jury is still out on that, if for nothing else for the troubles besetting each global US bank in its home market. Looking at revenue attrition of 15-20% is no small feat and staring at a barrel for the last three years has made the banks and the governments cagey and unreliable too.. Greece could see 30% of its monetary system disappear in seconds and the other McSwans could wreak more but the only answers to statistics lying in Force Majeure, Black Swans and sudden global shocks from governance or ill-governance have underlined only the growing business of statistics and even digital algorithms as man finds it very difficult not to enjoy all the entertainment and comfort at his disposal