Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
Published articles on the way 2012 shapes up have a mile to go from here. However as New Year begins here in India, we at The
Banking and Strategy initiative decided to use the lull ( in the markets too!) to expand on what we want to review and analyse for the readers and subscribers next few months and where possible calendarise for the year per se.
The Banking and Strategy Initiative unfortunately does not think the implementation of Dodd Frank and even the Volcker rule is going well despite good intentions on the regulators’ part. And we ourselves thought the regulators need support this time. The banks need to turn it around and unfortunately so does the Economy esp. we need to see that a thriving housing market happens and is in place, but all of us just seem to be wishing it in. Almost one in five events covered at “the initiative” will look to the survival of consumption in retail lifestyle, the Oil economy and the Energy map of the world and hopefully feverish dealmaking as M&A complements the quest for a new edge and economic use of the cash pile. With Europe in recession and conservative regulatory structures ( from the point of view of the liberal 2007 spire) in India and China offer challenges in digital and Bricks & Mortar business models alike , LatAm fights with volatility and America remains a low growth preserve keeping a watch on recessionary Europe.
Infrastructure for Jobs is not just a noble idea but a very practical one too, and renewing of US infrastructure may have more traction for research and public opinion, not healthcare reform. Education reform will get a look in too, as welfare and reform underline the themes of high growth emerging markets of india and China. The Frontier markets and their frailities from Mongolia to Vietnam, are not prejudice on our part but the ultimate reality to showcase at “the initiative’s” Emerging markets series too. I hope readers appreciated the depth of analysis and work on China’s banks, reforms and even the weevil’s in local lending we presented as a comprehensive series, Traditional nmedia and TV also had a field day on China in 2011 as much more data was available to experienced FT and WSJ and Reuters insiders in the middle kingdom. China’s domestic innovation binge is going to rear up too as despite protestations of politicians, China’s Yuan keeps rising fast enough for most. The Indian rupee’s dive, its weightage in the EMs and its comparative strengths will likely be easier to follow for global investors with our insight as our 2011 coverage discovered the plateau of expectations pretty earlier for the investors
Brazil, Mexico and South Africa will remain subjects of choice but we haven’t been traveling so we recognise challenges in indexing these markets for readers and investors
Obama and the republicans will swing as the US politics of the election year come up and I am still waiting for some substantive ground issues to be up on the campaign slate as the Economy will pull through keeping Obama barely on the ride
A third of the writings will still come from results quarters of the Big 4 banks and to a lesser extent European, Chinese and Indian Banks. Global comparisons will take precedence as will the focus on growing market segments and the ones sloughing off. But another microfocus for “the intiative” would be Economic reverbrations from fed policy, and Central Bank policy in Europe, China, India and perhaps Australia and Switzerland
The European Sovereign Debt crisis, unfortunately will likely remain in currency till the end of 2012 with hardly the first results of austerity streaking the report cards by the start of the second half of the year. Political failures will become increasingly the smoothening of the Rinse and repeat curves and definite fiscal bonding could be a matter of hope for the European Union.
As Derivatives get traded on exchanges in the $600 tln Fixed Income and Commodities markets, structured products will becoming interesting again after a wider acceptance of regulations and the ring-fencing in practice by a few key banks could have interesting real time answers.
A few other carts before the horse and some striking market surveys and advertising in innovation would complete our Virtuous Circle of 2012 as most of the weeding of the Vicious Circles is done by now in terms of direction.
In series we will continue with:
The retail Lifestyle champions
Advantage Dealbook (weekly round ups, monthly round ups)
Bank Results Season
European Banks Recapitalization
MORE IMPORTANTLY :-
– We need to identify new directions being developed and built for sustenance and growth across US, Europe, china, India and Africa and LatAm
– We need to initiate and deliver broader global investment flows and trade sanity globally
– We hope for your readership and moral and financial support in new directions
As for now, these would just be unformed thoughts on what will continue in 2012 to start developing your thought