The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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European Banks Recapitalization: Splitting the Eurozone ( French vs German options )

The European Central Bank. Notice a sculpture ...

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Unfortunately or Fortunately for Merkel and Sarkozy, the markets are now focussed on their golden words emanating from the G20 weekend frustration. First GReece then Italy showed spunk in taking the money and running ahead without reform as laymen would see it and though Governments have changed , several middle of the road options have been attributed to the two premiers. Sarkozy suggests perhaps intentionally hat the Eurozone consist of a tight inner circle incl all Euro countries and a loose outer circle thus excluding UK and those not interested in further monetary integration from further action in the “Core Euro zone” Merkel is supposed to have encouraged then denied, measures to allow member nations to split from the Euro , signalling to Italy that the option to buy into the aid and the austerity is not forced down on them but cntingent to them staying in the Euro

Though the reasons for both are diametrically opposite, the German and the French options also seem to be defining again a fully planned French option for a long term integrated monetary union

Symbol of the currency Euro, Black. Exact math...

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( which fits in nicely with Sarkozy’s Economic Report Card) and the German, Discipline is paramount  tactical warfare with her colleagues from Euro member states who should not blame Germany for their oes. UK no longer figures in the EMU  but the lines between the Core EZ members and the looser outer circle are not necessarily the same when the two leaders speak. Of course as of now the different combinations of the two circles ar enot part of either option and neither are these being discussed but for political commentators inside Europe, adoption of one or both outer circles across. France’s leaders have easy access to the global pool of pliable long term options for the Eurozone from its International leadership of the EU’s fiscal mechanisms but Germany with the purse strings has the Economic maturity to lead the Euro zone not necessarily with IMF and US sponsored Economic plans, that window available to them as long as they can keep the flock

a. Economically weaker nations part of the EZ who must realise the leadership and delicate nature of their relationship with other economies and

b. Non Euro supporting members of the 26 nation EU bloc

Also others outside, esp candidate nations in Eastern Europe may not belong to either of these two outer circles and these moving definitions may no longer serve political leaders and commentators well. The economic interrelations hsips of the member nations within and without any of these 4 circles would be complex and indeed binding in terms of trade relations, investor interest and contracts and each such Economic facet of the union. Members who stay on the periphery now, ready to be caarted out of the EU and/or recipient of Economic aid over and above the Maastricht criteria’s bounds would suffer even deeper pangs if these boundaries were ever moved after being put up cogently or by Economic inclusion and

EU Monetary Union and the single currency euro

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exclusion , allowing nature to take its course. Whenever these boundaries become clear to the markets globally, one of these members or even the “core” like France and /or holland will feel disturbed or left out or will pay an Economic rice for a moving boundary of these definitions. A Spain or an Italy may not even be able to withstand the shocks arising from misstatements and misunderstandings if these definitions do arise. A very simple example would be  a China signing a trade agreement with the Union and then choosing  or withdrawing from specific investments and projects of member nations, to test the flexibility of these boundaries .

Many had ruminated these scenarios from across the pondd when the Euro was envisaged and the Eruo leaders would d o well to realise that accidents may just be waiting to happen as the global money trade gets sucked into the European whirlpool and thus they should be very careful about where they want to take the Euro from here

The EFSF will not last for long as a $440 mln vehicle, the different layers of the meritocracy of nations perceived by global commentators fair game for banks and investors as new striations emerge on the policy bullets, and the flux may not last the full mile unless clarity is spoken and heard and fiscal stability achieved again for the 17 member Euro club


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