The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: A Statistics Review ( Another reason to borrow?)

Those who consider our analytical approach too light on statistics and charts must consider a couple of browsing calendars at hand while reading up on the Critical analyses of the day..the first from econoday .com also available at Nasdaq and now FT and WSJ with the Economic indicators of the day and / or review daily US economic statistics with Reuters Insider and a new one we discovered just today – Calculated Risk. Marketwatch.com has an economic calendar that  has both US and Global data releases and you could also keep MarkIt’s press page handy with more than 130 PMI data released every month

NEW YORK - JULY 28:  A home stands for sale on...

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Our mini magical mystery tour and  hard hitting critical insight agenda found some really robust arguments in recent Calculated Risk statistics. Just a hat tip!

Some new points of analyses we must revisit in 2012:

1. Though vehicle sales have picked up to a 1.1 million run rate and things have evened out in economic terms since the mid year crisis, vehicle miles traveled in the US have fallen 1.5% in September and 1.3% year to date. Vehicle miles have steadily increased in the US since 1971 till Jan 2008 or months leading to 2008 when growth rate in miles travelled turned negative. Vehicle miles in September 2011 alone amounted to 244.x billion miles, and a 1.5% drop was a massive 3.7 bln miles lower than September 2010

A distinct downward trend has emerged since January 2008 and though deceptively flat it distinctly leans lower every month. Year to date miles for the nine months have fallen 29.8 bln miles since September 2010. Still, we do travel 2.265 trillion miles in the US in three quarters without xounting most of the winters and holiday season

2. Again from Calculated risk, BofA has been formally warned by regulators that its performance has to improve or it will be formally put on notice for being a problem bank. That is as per the May 2009 MoU it signed with the Treasury,. I do not see a way out though, do you?

3. Existing Home sales comparison month on month turned favorable as September revised figures of 4.9 million sales were pipped 1.3% by October’s Seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million units. Seasonal adjustments are material but just statistical tweaking based on the historical trend for the figures of the same month

4. The year to year on existing sales would give you an even better fillip as it is 13% higher from October 2010. Inventory of units is also down 2.2% from 8.3 months of supply to 8.0 months of Supply. If you look at the numbers from the dumper of a crisis since 2008, things have never been better  for mortgage lenders like BofA!! 😀 The numbers in inventory asre still huge though and prices will keep ticking down some more, Fixed 30 year mortgage rates also continuing there almost one way down trend since the 70s and heading below 4%

5. Holiday season sales are expected to be 4% higher at the very least but third quarter growth has been slowed down to 2% from almost 3% reported. the holiday season dampeners look to be in place but one can always trust retail sales to trend up  and keep your chin held high.

6. More statistics, you should concentrate on the fact tha the New Hampshire primaries and all the election ruckus is soon to be upon us..no more debates on spending cuts either. Though in Europe, Spain did a little heavy lifting and in 4 weeks has come to a very flat flat yield curve, 5.11% for three months, and 5.51% for 6 month paper as of today, and 6.6% at the 10 yea

NASDAQ in Times Square, New York City, USA.

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r levels. Italy also took four weeks for the 10 year spreads to move from 4.58% to 7% . Also Spanish overnight yields have lent a uniformity to the region, vieing for the same rates , irrespective of no planned downgades on the horizon as Italy and Greece and I dare say a lot of Eastern European junk debt that is equally safe esp from Hungary and Romania but still comes at twice the GIPSI yield

 

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