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US economy: ADP Payrolls, Chicago PMI and the MBA report

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FRIDAY UPDATE: US Jobs report (all payrolls, public and private, 120k added jobs, Unemployment rate a big drop from 9% to 8.6% ( finally after a year and more in waiting) Ford Escape led ford to a 166k month with SUVs(small) growing 29% and F series continued the run at the top with 22% growth as well continuing what we told you in August / September data) 

The mortgage market makes one wonder if the Bank of America stock is going to be more than a penny’s worth before the home prices turn up.

Refinancing is down 15% for the week ended November 25 after a good previous week and Purchases lost their entire 8.2% gain of last week to report a flat -0.8% a little more understandable But overall, following yesterday’s 0.6% drop in the bottomless Schiller Indices, the fragile recovery has perhaps been broken with an unending stream of failure in the strongest and largest financial services sectors in the GDP streams. Ho,e prices are currently at levels last seen in Q1 2003. that’sd no surprise though. But the lack of demand at 4% refi rates even as Black Friday sales go up by 16% over November sales ..priceless!

10 .9 million homeowners lived in houses less than the value of their loan outstanding in October, 264k foreclosed during the month and now 10.7million live in houses worth less than the amount borrowed on them (Economix)

Meanwhile an equally strange ADP report gave one hope even as Air Force civilian retrenchments of more than 13500 people this week (The fired report is 42,500 people) could not keep private payrolls from jumping above its highest 200k estimate to report a 206k number. Later on in a couple of hours, the ever optimistic Chicago PMI will sign off on this brutal Wednesday that began with S&P methodology gainsaying more bailouts for banks Markets have indeed reason to skyrocket esp after the 16% jump in weekend sales heralded the holiday season and China began December ruminations with a reserve cut of 0.5% The Michigan Consumer indices have been floating around their bottom along with the housing reports , this week’s reading for October at below 65% where 75% is its basic confidence factor is neutral to positive for the Economy

The Chicago PMI stayed above 60 when the Empire State Indices and the Philly Fed indices went into negative territory but has been declining since and as all other global PMIs from China and India to Europe and UK, it shows a lack of new orders in Services and contraction in manufacturing .

 

After 60.4 in September and 58.4 in October, the Chicago PMI is expected to jostle back as October backlog orders jumped back to 51.2 and New Orders were a confident 61.3  in October’s report. The Chicago PMI came at another wondrous 62.6 reflecting the more upbeat sentiment in Dollar country as Europe crumbled in November and US determined there was not much wrong with it.  The Chicago report numbers marked the 26th month of expansion but only New Orders and Production numbers moved to 8 month and 7 month highs The other parts of the report remain dull incl MRO supplies, Capital Goods  and Production inputs as expected

 

The data is released at 9:45 am here

 

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This entry was posted on November 30, 2011 by in Financial Markets and tagged , , , , , , , , .

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