The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: A late tax deal gets the GOP Elephant

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Like all things Economics, we keep the quantitative analysis independent of the mind benders, like Boehner’s wierd antics that cost US another week of brand equity while spending enough to keep chugging along next only to Asia for 2012.

Economic Data has been good for December as we got out our report on the Titan of the Crisis the $25 bln strong McDonalds’

Durables orders shot up almost 4% for the month with the growth coming from Boeing’s orders from Oil country ( outside the Gulf of Mexico) Y/Y growht in Durables is an even better 12% ex transportation ( and Boeing) with 8% across all categories. Personal incomes and Consumer spending were up 0.1% a positive number though less than expectations even as markets wait for the home sales number, unlikely to give it any boost after a hot September and October up 1.5% on the year. The Euro is holding despite the bad news as The other Italian on ECB board , Bini Smaghi comes out in favor of a QE like stimulus for Europe. ECB has cut rates twice in the last two meetings since Mario Draghi  took over.France is yet to fall off the ratings cliff even as the last week for 2011 gets over ready for Christmas.

New home sales had grown in Chicago and San Francisco (LA) districts in October, while this months Existing home Sales had shown a healthy 50% jump in the North East in Boston and New York.


AT&T is buying spectrum from Qualcomm worth $1.9 bln negating the bad noise from the T Mobile drop. Meanwhile tied fortunes of

iPhone, iPhone 3G and 3GS

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iPhone and Apple seemed to dip on Europe’s choosing of low cost Apple alternatives. While iPhone 4s sales are strong and it retains leadership in US, UK and Australia, it goes off the air like Nokia in markets like Germany, France, Italy and Spain losing market share in that order to just 20%.

PAULSON LOSES BIG, 52% for the year 

Meanwhile IPO markets in Hongkong and Shenzen got more than $100 bln in listings together in 2011, with Shenzen getting more domestic stories. Signs of international dissonance apart, US is much back on the rails thanks to a 36% loss to hedgie Paulson in till December incl 6% this month in his flagship fund. The hedgie’s all funds together have lost 52% this year. The bad boy lost bets on Bank of America, Hewlett Packard and the Chinese paper ride in Sino Forest. Hedge funds have lost an average of 4% in December against Paulson’s 9%. (All summaries on point with Reuters Insider)






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This entry was posted on December 23, 2011 by in Amitonomics, US and tagged , , , , , , , .


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