Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
Even as China’s manufacturing economy grows back to 48.7 in December from 47.7 the growing inventories keeping production busy may not be the final marks on recovery. The other popular emerging markets from new Mongolia,, Vietnam and Philipines to the robust flagbearers of the region in south Korea and Singapore have unique problems and dependencies fromtheir limited physical and Economic size post-miracle growth of the eighties/nineties Japan’s PMI has grown back over 50 in December even as Thailand continues to affect vendor supplies andin Singapore inflation is raging at just under 6%
Singapore’s industrial output contracted nearly 10% in the quarter makin git 2 out of 4 quarters. Singapore, however is a trading economy, with only 15% manufacturing sector segment of GDP and 12% Construction segment which is also included in some data. Services are more than 70% of the island economy. The listed stocks have a plethora of real estate and construction players locally active in Singapore.
Singapore will report an expansion for the full year with GDP growing 5%. However despite the manufacturing segment being a minor player, the contraction in output spread to GDP falling 5% for the December quarter after a low 2% recovery in Q2 Singapore Dollar fell by 5.5% in the second half keepin gpace with the Indian currency that fell 16% while it has spent the crisis growing the stable SGD with the Australian to nearly 1.23 to the Dollar from 1.71 in the early millenium decade
Hallyu (Korean culture wave) : In 2012, South Korea has a less than $300 bln budget of which 30% is devoted to Welfare spending and another $30bln on Defence. It also spends a 1 Trillion won ( $1=1100 KRW) in 2011 and next year on inter Korea cooperaton, trying to woo the Morth even as North Korea trade splits 70:30 between China and Russia. A unified Korea is a stated goal of the Koreans, the spend required upward of KRW 350 Tln or $320 bln Korea spends 1 Tln won otherwise on local culture promotion. Apart from the 33.1 Tkln Won as DEfense budget, another 25 tln Won is spent on Cyber security
Kim Jong Un’s been welcomed by both China nad South Korea and the worries about a show of strength by No Korea unlikely, though South Korea remains tense as China is deemed a natural ally of both Koreas and North is not inteerested in recognising South Korea.
Korean GDP fell 0.6% and 0.4% in November and December though Exports remained robust with a monthly surplus of $ 5 bln in November. However softening domestic demand ( So Korea imports most of its consumer goods) and reducing exports in petrochem and electronics are signs of the slowdown in root. Current Account Surplus could go down from $27 bln in 2011 to $13 bln in 2012 even as 2012 growth target is a healthy 3.7% of GDP. The optimism likely stems from a regeneration of Capital Investment in the last quarter.
Korea had spent nearly $867 bln from 1974-2001 on Defense, $600 bln just on keeping the army on the Korean Border and $267 bln on modernisation and procurement