The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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USDEUR / FXE: "That's a good plan!"


Image by Fernando D. Ramirez via Flickr

In fact 1.19 levels rock for the Euro and anyone selling for a currency from 1.30 to 1.19 may be all you’ll get from it..1.19 would be around March or even May if they can hold it…

As rumors of preparations for a Greek Euro exit resume, even if attributed to an old Spiegel piece we wrote about back in 2011, and the USD seems like the cleanest dog in a dirty fight (this week at least), EURUSD drops below 1.27 for the first time since September of 2010. This is a 76.4% (Fib) retracement of the 2005-to-2008 rally and has few solid support levels below here at 1.2590, then the figure 1.25 quickly follows, and on to the 1.2330 10/28/08 swing low and finally the 6/7/10 swing low at 1.1877.

In the meantime the Greeks would get new public debt to hold the haircuts and bring down their debt obligation Private sector not getting haircuts seems like an appeasement poicy which as always could take ten years to boommerang. I doubt if that would matter.

What would matter? A GDP contraction of more than 10% in any of the five granted an extra sun or two in the Hellenic summit games last year ( incl Olympics for collateral, Olympics for Spnish elections, and Olympics for British Exports/trade )

The said contraction would matter only if one shows the day of announcement that the change will not be absorbed well by the financial markets. else all is fine ( I can see what you are thinking..)

In continuation of Monday Morning..


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This entry was posted on January 6, 2012 by in Amitonomics, Banking, European Sovereign Debt crisis.


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