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The new commodity cycle, A happy Jim Rogers and a resurgent Asia

English: The historical price of gold (troy ou...

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Some conditions, A couple of quid pro quos, go ahead and rub the magic lamp! The genie is out again as the housing numbers look to shore up after a bad fortnight in the end of the year with Purchase index up 8.1% and housing up 4.5% on 3.1% refi increases . The jump in Consumer credit apart, the ECB has already cut interest rates to 1% ( our tangible bottom) even as news of Gold’s importance in the scheme of Chinese investments has reached US shores again The resurgent Asia of course is just one that will not go into recession, not have a hard landing in China and growth of 7% in India and China will bring back smiles. The threat from big consultants is Mitt Romney, a force to recon and South Carolina is just a week away.   Also bad news for us in Asia is the new $1.2 tln in debt limit increase to be fought over in the US and big QE3 additions expected in March and April in the US, UK and Europe even as inflation in BRIC Brazil already runs out of its earlier control limits at 6.55% ( announcement expected tomorrow). The UK retail sales number at 2.2% growth and the win for Sansbury’s over Walmart and Tesco makes good news in London too as India lifts the lid on retail FDI yet leaving mega retailers ( multi brand FDI) inthe cold and asking tough local sourcing designs from investors

Last year’s purchase surge in Gold in China esp in coins and bullion bars is back near the advent of the Year of the Dragon. The import data in november revealed a good life for Copper and the new ETFs of USO and CPER are perfectly placed for a dip in Oil and Chinese luck necessitating further that as and when China beats India to the largest market in Gold ( on the basis of coins and bullion, India staying the big hope for Gold jewelry) Gold would keep climbing through old price limits. Jim Rogers chirpy demeanour and willingness to take risk on the Euro is a smuch a result of this buoyancy as the known route for the Euro from 1.26 to 1.19 and never likely to go below par to the DOllar. This thus more or less defines all the trade winds for the 3% clip in US growth and 5% in Asia probably as India and China brring more believrs into the fold from their bottoms. China goes first and faster, because of its nearness to commodities and thus may have hot weather again toward s the Fall season.  Even as Europe remains a dull market for Exports, it may yet remain the rage for FDI as European Corporates remain good investments and look for a leg in Asia and LAtAm even as Unicredit and the banks scare off bank recapitalisation efforts and BBVA and Santander in particular remain focussed on equity capital raising.

Job cuts and pay cuts bring a new red to the Color of Wall Street as the indices rise in unison after listening to the rosy bottomline punch for the globe increasingly unconcerned about Greek PSI inadequacies, new CACs and Deposits going to ECBThe SAGs settlements will add to the blood bath in the Financials though they have quite a clip of investors that brought it up at least 15% since its bottom in November despite the flow of restructuring news, which has not done Greece and Ireland let alone France and Apain any good yet.

th egreat thing about this run of positive, is that you better not call it a bull run, the speed has to be slower than that..though the Dragon was one of the fastest in mythology

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One comment on “The new commodity cycle, A happy Jim Rogers and a resurgent Asia

  1. Pingback: China inflation hits target 3%. now a dull PPI shutdown scare | Asia Review & Insight | The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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