The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: US Retail ex Auto – Where did you park the economy, exactly!

The graph on the right tells the story of a sunny disposition in retail sales destroyrd by the fatigue from overspending on cards for America, apparently.

That could be one ready reason for the dropping retail sales with even the Goldman ICSC and the Redbook downturn looking much better and while a not strong retail sales was expected from the week’s data, most stock pickers would be a little careful here, leading traders to shed SPY interest. The reports came ont he back of a expected stalling of further interest rates in the UK and Europe as last minute production up moves allowed the central banks to maintain a bottom of 0.5% in UK and 1% in ECB territory on bank rates. Fed bank support and ECB direct lending to banks remained high last week, banks truning in with their client to increase deposits to record levels. November figures were revised to twice at 0.4%

Jobless claims could have destroyed the equanimity across the pond on their own with a scary hit back on the 400k number at 399k, Warren Buffet providing comic relief calling out Republicans and Mitch McConnell for a matching contribution from him for every dollar the Elephant donated to save America. America is due for a cat fight , or just grass expects to suffer when the debt ceiling comes up for another increase  early next month.

Retail boxes and bagsRetails ex Auto went on to negative plato balance the  auto loan dollars reducing chances of a positive silver lining to continue to Feb or even March as the spending curbs on personal items carry all buoyant data to a negative growth to balance the sustained positive since 9-10 weeks ago

Bank results ar eunliely to be that bad, but there are no Beoing orders to perk up New Orders and Transportation figures in the hard economy, while the bigger slice of service economy is unlikely to change the pace of recovery and continue to the new 3% target for 2012

Also the buoyancy in Copper and Gold may cause some anti inflationary savings to stop growth stop telegrams while the price increases do bring color to the bigger Economy as Exports to China catch up to good economics globally, esp while the Iranian scare is still on .

2011 sales ended the year with a big 10% jump at $4.7 tln and are unlikely to stay down, the last holiday season bringing out unsecured credit to jump 20% from car loans and credit cards (revolver)

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