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Amylin's Bydureon vs Novo Nordisk's Victoza | Deal Insight

Healthcare’s big week continues almost uninterrupted after the weekend with Amylin’s ByDureon a once a day trateatment it found after Byetta’s licensed sales with Eli Lilly plateaued off at $2.5 bln, propelled it bank into analyst mainstream speak.

Novo Nordisk drug Victoza and Britol Myers’ Squibb’s (BMY:US ) Saxagliptin once a day drug Onglyza also provide potent multi billion competition in the market. Each of the four drugsa re likely to hold a just less than $ 5 bln market for the drugs in the next 2 years as they ramp up into the world’s largest stress related disorder treatment charts along with newbies like Oral Insulin and more.

Two of the above are first line of defense DPP4 inhibitora and the other like Byetta are new found , filled with side effects yet selling off the shelves GLP1 inhibitors that are potent enoguh to make the body remember its insulin functions again in medical speak. These injectables Bydureon and Victoza have received FDA approval ahead of concerns on Cardiac function  and Pancreatic function/Cancer conerns respectively. Victoza received approvals exactly a year ago to the day.

Bydureon precursor Byetta had a licensor with Eli Lilly which bowed out in November. Amylin will do well to get absorbed into one of the half a dozen acquirers prowling around including Bristol Myers Squib that does not have an injectable in the portfolio. Even Novartis only has Galvus in its portfolio and needs aone GLP1 based injectable product

Novo Nordisk listed on Copenhagen exchange has Dollar sales of $ 10.7 bln with latest quarter 75% sales or $2.2 bln ( EUR 1.6 bln) from Diabetes medications.  At least two thirds of this figure could be insulin products

Amylin’s 2010 and 2011 sales are less than $675 mln and the market cap after a 20% jump over the weekend is $2 bln

The DPP4 based  Galvus, Janumet and Onglyza are used in conjunction with metformin, sulfonylureas and thiazolidinediones . Others like Avandia and Rezulin were withdrawn globally on Cardiac complications in 2010 and 2011. Victoza sales for the nine months of 2010 were a $231 mln and in 2011 Q3 alone the sales exceeded $266 mln or just below $1 bln for the year. Sales are likely to be the highest in 2012 near the $2.5 bln for a drug in this category.

Galvus (Novartis) was recently launched in China two weeks ago. Diabetes currently accounts for nearly 20 percent of medical expenditure in China and the economic burden is projected to increase from USD 26 billion in 2007 to USD 47 billion by 2030 (Novartis press release) Galvus Europ e segment sales were $800 mln in 2011

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