The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: The Amazon gotcha, a prescient ADP report and more Autos

The Amazon phenomenon took its toll on the aftermarket giving investors a chance to buy afresh into the Jeff Bezos’ vehicle, losing $20 before markets opened, even as Ford reports 136 k domestic sales, Chrysler 101k and Nissan nearly 80k while Toyota and Honda comebacks continued at the same rate as December without a change in sales. Of course Chrysler called the feast with Fiat having delivered the last of its conditions of a 40mpg Dart to be manufactured from Tennessee and its first profits were extra sweet at $183 mln for the year as Fiat offset loss in the rest of the group with that Q4 profit and full year profits came to $682 mln. Good Enough!

And that should be the motto while reading the ADP payrolls look see into the Friday Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, A revised 292k jobs for December and a 170k for January including 241k in Services and another 150k in January showing that while manufacturing takes it time to heal jobs additions are in and the 8.5% unemployment rate or even 9% sustainable without a drop even as a Labor participation rate of 64% competes with the worst in the South in Europe and 5.6 mln remain unemployed for more than 6 months(27 weeks)

The Amazon forecast for March 2012 is a $12 – $13.5 bln and Fiat(Chrysler’s) forecast for 2012 is a 8% lower EUR 77 bln or $100 bln, again good enough! Auto Sales incl Fleet vehicles / exports will stay along the 13.4 mln run rate in the USA

The DB – NYSE merger has been prohibited as expected even as Nomura underlines another big result big on sales of $1,036 bln yen and low on income of barely Yen 34 bln

Wiuth the new $1.5 tln line for European banks coming and Portugal trading at 16 % yieldd, 2012 is where it was liely to be when the recovery in equities began, and if there is still misunderstanding on this base case there might be pain in Financial markets but we still hold that is unlikely with Chicago PMI still at 60 and China PMI improving to above 5 0 on the Official number and even 48.8 on the HSBC MarkIT  PMI. Germany and UK PMI figures were even stronger than expected at 51 and 52.1 respectively OF course Services PMI in a few days will brighten the scenario further and growth in 2012 even if less than 4% seems on track

Even as JP MOrgan ‘s Jaime Dimon and Goldman SAchs’ Lloyd Blankfein waarned of possible big losses / bank run in Wurope, things muddle along in the continent and in the US with strong sales reports in Q4 results



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This entry was posted on February 1, 2012 by in Financial Markets and tagged , , , , , , , , .


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