US Economy (EoD Review): Predictable January receipts, a slow tax refund season

As Econoday reports, the February and March budget deficits are likely to be back to supersized gaps, while January as predicted was good on tax. Fortunately for the ogvernment, the IRS is unlikely to be issuing any extra refunds this season unlike the usual rush, which does lead to a slowdown at the stores in terms of retail sales. A small $27 bln deficit has not happened since the zero era though, t is unlikely to be repeated any other month of the election year.

The U-Mich Index also fell 4-5 points on the current conditions to land January at 72.5 from 75 in December though mid month surveys are better to 68 from 63 in December.

The pink bars chart this Fiscal that runs from October 2011 and even if February is better it is likely to add $150 bln to the deficit, where January now has put the Year to Date total at $60 bln better than last year, even as deficit icicles keep hitting up a snowstorm.

The week ended with a very weak session as the Dow retraces gains in January, unless the statistics can run it past the yearly highs next week. After the jobs tumble ( or the unemployment rate tumble) this week is like a surprise from Housing starts on Thursday and a small probability of the Empire Indices raining in on Wednesday. I hope the Superbowl was good for the Indiana Economy and the Giants win good for the East Coast economy per se ( or wherever the fans are!)

Related articles

• How to get the fastest tax refund (cbsnews.com)
• Where’s my refund? (turbotax.intuit.com)
• Budget deficit drops to $27 billion in January (newsok.com)
• Tax refunds delayed by fraud fine-tuning (dontmesswithtaxes.typepad.com)
• Federal tax refunds delayed by IRS system upgrade (sfgate.com)