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Do you also right sunken ships? | Commodities Insight

Panamax container ship

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The Baltic Dry Freight Index sunk for more than two weeks, is turning up from lowest while the addition of 10% each in fleet sizes in 2010 and 2011 means that a Panamax carrier normally available for $30000 is now going for $6,600 but not for long.

One however does not understand the glitch that caused the index to  fall to that same bottom, 85% lower in june 2008 as everyone stopped shipping raw materials, recover to over 4000 on the Chinese bailout and instead of bottoming in 2011 August whence the Chinese non production of plants was at its near high, staying around on heating oil supplies and others in December being a small respite. to 2000 and now back at the bottom.  Merely from volatility in Oil supply schedules the DFI can cause heartburn in days and in one month of Coppper or other the metal carrying vessels ccan take the index back too, apparently.

Irrespective of the story of its comeback, it will continue following dsparate commodities and as global commodities players slip up or down, so shall the index buoy. Apparently, closureof shipping channels in the case of DFI can not transparently rise to the tune of the rise in Oil but if supply odf ships is a constnant k, that k can be k/2 to 2k on 10% extra availability, a case of Jekyll can make all the rats follow the Pied Piper perhaps, instead of the music, or some such other interesting analyses we wait to discover. Anyway technically that chart is showing the commodities cycle that did rise after a bottom in August, is nw ready fromanother upmove irrespective of having been up by Oil and Gold all this while. And I did not say Gold is turning down yert! Perhaps retribution for the folks at Goldman SAchs wrong thrice in a row on the metal and the mineral oils?

Oh yes, this I’m sure, the volatile indices up and down mean nothing unless margin calls are due, and so the BDi drop should have been no sweat and thus the fall aglitch not to affect global economic strength building as it happens

Building up a demand model for investment chartists? 

Also, one needs to note for ones readership and everyone else that the big O or Oil has really shown the way to dropping out of the picture with Demand dropping to 850,000 bpd ( I thought China alone could do that much, however) and optimistically the other 1.2 mln bpd estimate, meaning the price may not fall much being managed by the supply lines with or without OPEC ..looks like easy peasy lemon squeezy!

 

 

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This entry was posted on February 14, 2012 by in Financial Markets and tagged , , , , , , , , .

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