The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: The Purchase Index couldn’t do it..but there is a lot of QE in the election year

Of course a nine day window for Greece to detail the austerity measures and then endless bouts of Dutch, Finnish parliament votes and German referendum to approve the package of EUR 130 bln have the markets in a tizzy so the markets are likely to show their back to Mt 13k this day even as Existing Home sales report in a three hours’ time are unlikely to break thru the recessionary ceiling on bond yields s another round of QE from UK, ECB ( LTRO) and US is on the cards, Oil headed northward even as December saw an uptick in miles driven by US families, and Oil and Gas at retail having jumped thru the entire month in just one direction leaving Oil the winner but hey while the cash is flowing around, who cares!

The Purchase Index including the refi were down 2.9 and 4.9% Supply of homes from the Existing home sales data may well fall below 6 months of inventory with a minor improvement in existing sales to 4.71 mln

Euro ECB

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Credit is unlikely to pickup from the LTRO, Eurozone imports are likely to remain dead in the water, and China’s manufacturing recovery is just that extra slow that keeps the brows furrowed but the GDP growth yet likely to hit 3% than 2% in 2012 The Euro expectedly after so much cash liquidity is expected to remain the premium safe haven quality currency the Developed world is so good at constructing.

The HSBC China PMI was a respectable 49.4 but contracting till it crosses 50, the Official PMI likely to be above 50, Eurozone Mfg and Services PMI are still contracting at 49 and 49.4 but business expectations are much better even as employment incl German data looks nose down. Composite PMI was 49.7 a nose ahead of China and trying to come into expansion yet marked by a lower employment sub index. The Euro still starts the US day at 1.3225

And there is the flash that Obama’s Tax plan ( i don’t know if we will eever see it implemented) has a corporate tax cut long awaited by Corporate America. also the Yen is back above 80 after a 6 month hiatus as BOJ pumps in its version of QE


English: Greece's recent debt history, between...

Image via Wikipedia




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