The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: Really, you want data on Friday..

Dow apparently needs not wait for any data or estimates or expectations this Friday, making do with the after hours AIG pop, no tears split over the retailers who have benchmarked 2012 epectations appropriately lower at half and no extra expectations from homes sales or job / unemployment both of which have plateaued before the activation of the Dragon Economies after their 2012 New Year festivities.

Now just global trade matters, in which US and the big banks from US are still doing better than most in both China and Europe where trade is focussed while growing pps(percentage points vs Bips or basis points)  in the emerging yet not emerged economies like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Colombias and the Venezuelas( Did someone say Chile was a good retirement destination). Everyone else has deftly defined how they will perform while not under performing and not really creating any expectations of performance whether in China, Swiss, Japan, Loonie Canada, China vendor Australia and the big South Asia monolith of India.

Thankfully again, and I am not sure how long everything can be so non commital either, even Syria and Iran are not going to war, Romney is not rid of Santorum or Newt to yet challenge Obama and can still defend the Massachussetts Healthcare plan he supervised into implementation and no one in the Central Governments is shy of printing money, OMOs, or LTROs, what a fat year this is going to be , with no one getting the exercise.

The Barcelona conference is going to be a dud like the Vegas CES or the Detroit Auto show and thankfully no one is burnt with even the retailers losing near double digits in earnings yesterday none the worse for the inflation

Polski: Oddział AIG Bank Polska w Bydgoszczy, ...

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and the supposed recession ride, be it Kohl’s, JC Penney’s or that other one with the store branded cards.

AIG will be selling some of its stake and the hot Deal Calendar of January and February will still continue into Q2 even as the third telling month of Q1 averages out the resplendent opening. Next month the Empire State will likely be listed and fighting digital companies for some floor space while Commodities will end March with due warnings for inflation for 2012.

The 7 yr auction of yesterday afternoon gathered a massive $29 bln for a respectable 1.42% yield, the Fed Balance sheet shrunk after weeks with Treasury holdings down $10 bln, even the Central bank swaps down after an easy week in Europe. The MBS adds totted up $5.2 bln in the balance sheet but M2 seemed to spike in these dull days from $12 bln to more than $27.9 bln, apparently some tax refunds probably also making their way late than never. Most of the 7 year notes were picked by investors, showing greater belief in monetisationand extra supernary debt for the American Economy than the Economists while action is firmly in investing in all the dull super sectors from European sovereign debt and CDS to municipals and leveraged finance that had only redemptions for three long years.

And Oh! Did you know AIG is thinking of renominating its division back to the AIG name so they can actually do some business. incl Chartis which grew pretty big, the AIG record profits of $19 bln only because of write backs from the taxman of $18 bln.

 

 

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This entry was posted on February 24, 2012 by in Financial Markets and tagged , , , , , , , , , .

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