The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: Pending Home Sales rise in the South, Dallas Index jumps to 25 (Employment)

January contract signings were up 2%, to rise 10% in the South, likely to be manifested in next months’ existing home sales numbers and in Economic growth with a double digit contribution for the South ‘meaning plenty’. November’s data had shown a 25% jump in the Mid West and 18% in the North East. Pending Home Sales grew 10% and 7% in October and November before correcting 4% in December. It takes 4 to 6 weeks to close a contract to sale.

Meanwhile not far away, the Dallas Fed NAI showed a jump registering 17.8 score on a 11.2 score for Production up from 8 , future expectations stil healthy at 16 but new Orders already falling to below 6 from 10 in January. Texas finally caught up on the job curve 29% of firms reported hiring for a 25 score on the Employment Sub index. Both January and February have come in exceptionally strong bringing good news at 15 and 18 from sub zero frigid conditions in Q4

The day before the storm, LTRO expectations in Europe are still good for a EUR 500 mln, as that much is due in debt repayments by banks as well ( no, not credit growth yet!, no one’s got the time or inclination tolend to anyone, but they may not use fed money now). Italy’s six month debt cost is down to 1.2% but tomorrow’s $10 bln auctions have a new 10 year bond auction as well.

The 3 month and 6 month auctions yields firmed up to the best 0.115% and 0.145% respectively before the hopi index reports tomorrow ( Case Schiller home Price Index) along with Durable Goods and the not so elusive Consumer Confidence data. GDP reports on Wednesday

 

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