The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: Durable Goods go under, Case Schiller can’t break fall, Super Tuesday ruminative

Durable goods fell 4% for January 2012 with not just missing Boeing contracts after an awesome growth in the previous months, but also a 10% drop in machinery , indicating firstly that manufacturing outlook remains bleak and raising concerns that Exports, of which machinery is a prized #1 or #2 category always, are also under threat as expected and slightly more. Transportation measured a +6.4% in December and -6.1% this month but durables still fell 3.2% excl aviation.

Gas at the pump remains headed for $5 in the next couple of weeks, and Home Price Index shows a bit more weakness than good for stable prices as the previous growth in the Midwest breaks in to the largest price falls in Illinois, Chicago and the rest ( Midwest) store Sales from ICSC (GS) started hwing the M/M fall (-1.0%) with Y/Y growth dropping below 3%, while the REdbook showed Y/Y growth at 3.4%

Investor Confidence also showed a drop to 86.5 from 92 as investors gave  a hard long look at equities, showing in more predictions of Fixed Income dominance in the next decade. Consumer confidence is however back up to 70 on the public statistics, probably from the emotional appeal of having lived in a recession for three years and had enough of it than anything else.

Also, all eyes are on Super Tuesday even as it does not help anyone get closer to any results or in Arizona and Michigan today. Super Tuesday states include Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahama and 7 other states including Mass and Vermont in New England. 416 delegates get counted on 6th March, 40 in a Wash caucus on 3rd and 59 tonight which newt skipped in hope for a trip in Tennessee and Georgia among others on March 6. Helping Newt jump the Arizona and Michigan votes is the winner takes all proposition for 57 delegates today leaving one candidate with a big hole.

And, there’s one more day to go to report the jump in Auto sales , Service Sector is also included in the regional Chicago PMI which we like as an indicator and the MBA report will start proceedings in the pre market tomorrow, GDP ticking psitively over another positive September tomorrow to take the score to its nearest to 3% targets now having engendered hope from us.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2012 by in Financial Markets and tagged , , , , , , , .

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