Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
It’s Feb 29 and a good time to commit to your knowledge of the Macro. As John Paulson have discovered, making macro mistakes is easy and the debate can last. though we have already done the research and it should be very easy. There is no HP, no Netflix, Amazon and Disney are not so easy to lose from the shortlist, Coke and ibm yes, they can make the cut in some other lists, but the first two Citizens of the new global paradigm are definitely the $1 Tln Apple and the unlimited supply of infrastructure machinery from Caterpillar. both should be a breeze till 2016. Brazil should be a good place to pick another winner for 2016 as Rio hosts the Olympics next and probably we would have if Petrobras and vale and bHP and Glencore/Xstrata weren’t so hopelessly mixed up!
We will allow banks and the appeal of India and Asia / China to dictate our other two picks,so let me know if you any choices at your end. The safest bet from India is IDFC or the Infrastructure Development Corporation and the shortest gap separates them from likely winners of Asian growth Bharti Airtel and even the State Bank of India.
China of course is the toughest with Cities capable of REITs , probably ETFs (for city /counties), Dim Sums and so many other ASEAN opportunities that they try to dominate. there are also so many lifestyle businesses that are ramping up with Asia the next battleground for Starbucks, McDonalds, Proctor & Gamble and the survivor from Europe, Unilever.
Oil is easy, Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell look great yet one needs to choose between Global Banks for their far more impactful contribution yet there are only two who have the scale and the profits as Goldman sachs unfortunately start back at the blocks for a makeover, Citi look unproved, Bank of America has reforms followed in Earnest, The Chinese banks yet not transparent or global in the known sense of the word would personally prefer JP morgan Chase, just for their ability to use their scale to create new markets and streams from the ground up compared to HSBC which though more profitable is captivated more by just profitable lending and that makes it almost equally captivating, running a very close second. if there werejust four banks to consider Apple and Caterpillar not in the list, the question of length and persistence of investment and growth would have alo taken off iDFC ( our India choice) and we would have instead four of our favorite banks in there.
So the final List:
JPM (NYSE, USA)
CAT (NYSE, USA)
AAPL (NASDAQ, USA)
IDFC (NSE, INDIA)