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US Economy: The consequences of a Romney win, Auto PMIs and all that Europe but PE pay

At some stage , all Americans will deal with the question. As of now ahead of Super Tuesday, only data for Ohio favoring Santorum and Georgia favoring Newt 2012 campaign’s available and after the win of nearly 59 delegates yesterday ( unless Mich. decides to share delegates in a close election)  put Romney’s $38.9 mln Ad Campaigns and the Santorum Apple take off firmly behind us. The Chicago PMI may well be revised for January and come near 61 for February again conforming the robust Auto, other manufacturing and services growth incl new jobs in America’s great Mid West. (9:45 am Update: The Chicago PMI came in at a 64, above the highest estimates, Employment index is back up from 54.4 to 64.4 as are New Orders and Production. The report is still below the best scores in December, with new orders coming in at 63.6 instead of as high as 67.1 then )

So far behind that European banks awash with arguably $800 bln if the Euro does indeed start back from 1.34 now to 1.46-1.50, have no time to get out across the pond and are letting the Big 4 banks play in their back yard.

Meanwhile Blackstone’s Steve Schwartzman has also run ahead of his friends at KKR with a $134 mln in dividends from stock, $74 mln in Carried interest? from investments and his pay package totting up $213 mln, bidding SEC up front to redress the situation quicker with taxes on Carried interest, being withdrawn as pay by Kravis, Roberts and now Schwartzman. the public Carlyle Fund founders Conway, Rubenstein and D’anello distributed $134 mln each incl. carried interest for a $413 mln pay day. It seems the  Blackstone founder will hardly pay $15 mln in taxes without the carried interest taxes and the tax rate being that of Capital Gains at 15% yet and none on dividends. Another $15 mln due from carried interest yet not in the statute 😀 and the $4.6 mln pay package plus perks the only taxed components.

Meanwhile back in Europe Italian yields are now trading at 5.26% and banks are up 1.1% as Economic data like a negative Swiss GDP growth indication, shrinking consumer goods Consumption in France (-2.4% Y/Y) and an ever ‘stable’ 6.8% unemployment rate in Germany could not keep stocks down after the EUR 529 bln was signed on by 800 banks incl Lloyds’ for $15 bln.

Nasdaq 3k beckons and it is risk on in Commodities as Iranian oil trades resume with gold barter. India’s Q3 GDP was nearest to a shutout at 6.1% but inflation has tracked down and while Oil remains below $110 (WTI at $106 today) – 125 (Brent) it is likely india will restart a rate cut virtuous cycle by next month.

The MBA Purchase Applications report came out with the Refi sitting back at -2.2% and the Purchase index higher by 8% but the report owners suggest it is still a downtick from that “Home Tax Credit of May 2010”. The US GDP came out at 3.0% ahead of estimates at 2.8% but largely on growth in inventories by 1.9% as GDP inflation fell sharply to near 0 at 0.4% from almost 2.6% in Q3. Sales of Domestic Product rose only 0.8% for Q4 after a 3.2% rise in july-September, wiping out the smile from the Economy

Durable Goods sales in France have been trending down since  2006 itself and negative for nearly 6 months now. Britain’s M4 turned nose up to 1.6% M/M but leading indicator remains as much as -3% for the year even as 2 bln odd of mortgage lending and less than 60,000 new mortgages brighten their day as returns fo the GBP 325 bln QE , first in six months and highest since 2009. Eurozone inflation was a dscouraging -0.8% M/M and a high 2.8% Y/Y, correction likely in domestic product and thus International Imports alone as three months experience shows.


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One comment on “US Economy: The consequences of a Romney win, Auto PMIs and all that Europe but PE pay

  1. Pingback: US Economy: Chicago PMI scores a well rounded 64 | The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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