The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: Jobless claims start the Thursday rush order for data

The ISM Manufacturing Index of course would be key to watch esp as the GDP growth of 3% did not mean much in Q4 and strong ISM was the beginning of the flood of economic optimism built on the drop in Jobless Claims at the beginning of the  year. Unless backlogs drop back to below 50 levels the ISM index should score on the week’s various indications showing production as well as employment confidence.

The Jobless claims are static at 351k and keep watching this space for the rest of the good news as there is no data due tomorrow. China PMI came in at 49.8 as the Flash said last week.

Personal income grew slower by just 0.3% for Jan 2012 and we still await the detail on wages and salaries, that is likely to have dragged it down after the sterling recovery in December,as M?M comparisons tend to show correction for optimism and there is only so much recovery going around..ISM dipped frm the high 54.5 in January to a yet optimistic 52.5 at 10 am ET

New orders slowed, to 54.9 vs 57.6, as did backlogs, at 52.0 vs 52.5. Production also slowed, 55.3 vs 55.7, as did employment, at 53.2 vs 54.3. But February’s rates are respectable and not that much different than January.

A speeding up in delivery times is a major factor behind the slowing in the composite index, while a big plus in the report, and a surprising plus given troubles in Europe, is a jump in new export orders to 59.5 vs 55.0. Inventory readings are lean and stable.



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