The Banking and Strategy Initiative

Chillin' out till it needs to be funded

US Economy: The Auto sales are riding Superbowl campaigns, Shoppers gun for favorite stores..

Of course most of us may not call them campaigns yet, but the effort in producing a $5 mln ad time spend that cost another $5 mln to make is effectively good for campaign like impact and thus measurement. Post Superbowl discussions and pre bowl cornucopia of ads from VW, Honda, Kia, and the Ford vs GM vs Chrysler ad inventory we pursued on game day was the treat that will lead discussions on the improving auto sales as the number s come in the afternoon, any time now.

Fashion sales are already holding data back on rails after the non descript yet busy morning , including global cues from French unemplyment to Swiss GDP growth and nothing displacing the euro and Dollar strength in currencies , even the 0.4% CPI for italy and a 37 PMi for Greece that has contracted 7% in 2011.

The 18 stores that report together added up a 6.4% growth in February with Chinese tourists likelys. to add more to this buoyant number in the coming months with special Tourist Visas for mainland shoppers. After a 3% uptick reposted in the GS-ICSC numbers and the Public retail data, the data on Chain Store Sales at the end of a 29 day February is a real unabomber for the cognoscenti who thouht the Card splurge had ended right after the sttat pourri of Christmas and there was nothing left but Jim Beam and Cola or your bourbon without the fireplace,given the warm weather.  valentine’s day sales estimated a $2 bln higher at $17.6 bln compare with the 56 bln Christmas holiday Season shopping, giving election year more spending power than the Romney Super PACs that are already $35.8 mln out of pocket.

Target’s discount chains are hitting great monthly numbers with a 75 same stores growth, better than its own up beat reports that started sometime in July 2011, but Kohl’s is down in February too, probably still stocked with frozen entrees it does not want . TJ’s reported a big 9% number and nordstrom ahead at 10.2%, even Saks going for 6.6% all upto 20% higher than expected and twice the weekly updates that have definitely turned nose down to 3% from 5% of 2011 comparisons.

The 10 year yield continue to ride the low 1.93 % levels. Construction spending is up 7.1% Y/Y and a good 1.8% for January in residential, tempered by a 1.5% drop in Non residential(Private) that negated December’s 2% increase.





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This entry was posted on March 1, 2012 by in Financial Markets and tagged , , , , , , , .


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