Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
China PMI data early in the night leads up to a beautiful March recovery as March madness starts off this week with Jobs Data continuing to add 200,000 in Jobs by the ADP report (Private Payrolls) before Friday’s Employment situation Report (Jobs report) The ISM Services index would likely follow the 53.9 Services PMI score for China leading the recovery even as China becomes a larger importer of advertising and other consulting services.
The Consumer Credit report on Wednesday will likely reach a worrying buoyancy mark this week with another high score for revolving credit and the February Trade Reports also come on Friday, but then the whole world is still revolving around the election year’s underlying buoyancy in Jobs. Most global economies incl Indian markets that are the obvious example seem to have gone overboard in celebrating a recovery completing in 2 months what the year will produce in terms of optimism.
China’s overall PMI was firmly bullish at 51.8, Hongkong at 53 up more than a point each from January data. Global manufacturing does have a MarkiT index as well sponsored by JP Morgan, led by SAF, US, India and Denmark , compensating for deterioration in Greece, Spain and Italy. Even south Korea moved out of contraction zone to 50.7. Korea and Japan have also become increasingly wedded to the China economy this year investing in Chinese equities and bonds as policy easing jumpstarts trade and production. However all Services and Composite PMIs for February show focus shifting from Jobs to New Orders and not really healthy on backlog except where this was the turnaround month, as soon as factories have been run a month ( or the corresponding restart in services) the backlog is weak enough to lose more than half of its gains.