The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: Purchase index is run by Refi (77%) ADP Payrolls grow 216k

The Job Cut report avoided spooking the markets as the data will be reported Thursday, bu tthe 77% Refi applications bogged the Purchase index in the MBA report to a composite fall of 1.2% as Purchases continued to rise for the second consecutive week, 2.1% higher after a 8.2% last week report, 4 week average not out to the green side, at -0.5%

The ADP Payroll report also reports annual revisions today, matching itself with BLS on monthly employment growth between the two data. BLS reported a 257k increase last month following on a 170k Private payrolls jump in the ADP report and expectations are well north of 200k from the ADP Payrolls this week.  Leading our expectations of surprise, is the fact that February data will likely net the impact of over 50k couriers in transportation and services sector employed for the Holiday season. However as of now the report is up 216k, for some reason the temp courier number will drop in the March series with or without impact on the overall number.

That means the BLS number will likely rise a recordbreaking 250-300k on Friday and the Employment rate can drop further. Rest, we will find out what is in the fine print..the seeming additions of 14k in Finance and 16k in construction for one, are likely only seasonal adjustments ( zerohedge)

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