Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
That US relies on Consumption alone for a recovery started showing up in its Trade numbers as the buoyant data of the last two months yielded a revised , BIG LOW of $50.4 bln in December 2011 and $52.6 bln in January 2012. The reason it is linked to consumption from the symptoms is that while exports grew a credible 0.4% and 1.4% in the two months, imports jumped 1.6% in December (revised) and 2.1% in January even as the Services exports continued growing to $14.9 bln . The change in deficit essentially a $2.5 bln uptick in the Petroleum Goods deficit to nearly $30 bln
Surpluses with Hongkong, Australia and Singapore shrunk while deficits with China, OPEC and Canada rose. Deficits with Japan, Germany and Mexico fell but were still upwards of $4 bln with each while Eurozone deficits per se reduced to $8.5 bln
December’s change was driven by the Non Petroleum goods deficit against export orders for Boeing in 2011 which will take their time in execution while January’s change is mostly the Oil related items.
The worry is that February was more of the same and a higher deficit could really wobble Global trade with the Dollar falling through to start up the local growth engine, if it could.