The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy ( The Week Ahead): FOMC, Feb Deficit, MBA, Jobless Claims, Inflation ..

Not counting tomorrow’s official NFL Free Agency tip off and the ‘Bama and Miss. GOP mishaps as Romney runs amok..but according to the Miami Herald, Santorum could still come back in California in June and Gingrich could bow as early as tomorrow if Romney money rolls over him.

..The import and Export Prices first on Wednesday

US domestic production of Oil in the mean time ticked up to a record 5.6 mln barrels per day and Foreign curde imports down to 45% as US reduced imports by 1 million barrels and closed 2011 consumption at just 10 mln barrels per day. and that is just 25% of the Global Consumption.

The FOMC gets into conference as the MBS buying program and Operation Twist get into fatigue zone and could be exchanged for a new QE program in some hopeful quarters. The Fed could again just like the health of the Economy, that’s what we feel. Meanwhile Japan showed a good traction in the Corporate Goods Price Index this year but that could just be the Tsunami repair bill passed on as well as rises in Crude, Paper and Chemicals.

..And the Empire State and Philly Economic Activity index reports on Thursday

The jobless claims and the MBA report are not likely to cheer anyone further this year while the Inflation and the PPI reports could be an eye opener with Oil prices still managed well before the Spring pop. China’s Deficit could really not hurt China and instead be a springboard for growth and thus they could be looking t beating the US in Oil consumption as well and Chinese equities and the IPO market likely to lead investors parallel to the soft landing watch without any duress for the Chinese Economy beyond this point.

Housing data a week later could prove what we have begun to suspect at the incipient S&p rally itself. there ain’t nothing up on this road from here..as even Deal equations lie low to be counted for Duds again..

Meanwhile banks are returning as much as $4 bln in new Dividend increases and $6 bln in buybacks with Citi jumping out with a $3 bln plan and Wells faster and higher at $4 bln ( Bloomberg has the news and we have the analysis)

 

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