The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy (The week ahead): Housing market Data to keep up; China, Euro PMI, whither recovery

While last month’s Existing and new Home sales data hit all time highs, with a 20 month high for Existing Home sales at 4.57 mln and new home sales at 321k, not many would mind if the numbers dipped a little when data reports on Wednesday/Friday respectively, but market expectations are higher esp as prices dipped by a steep 4.6% to just $154.1 k last week. Housing Starts dipped last in December but the equity markets continued to celebrate the ongoing recovery and were already up to 699k for January 2012., the number in February on Tuesday likely to be much the same but builders’ stocks have been up in a tearing hurry in this rally, which isn’t over by a long mile ( of flat beach sand!).

Th e Housing Price index had almost caught up in December over 2007 levels as prices rose both in November and December and that Hopi is up in 6 out of 9 Census Divisions, January data for single family housing unlikely to break a trend as recovery reporting reaches a stretchable conclusion and starts losing momentum for the markets despite the political economy heating up nearer the elections. Wisconsin is the near one that remains to be counted in the Republican Primaries and Obama will likely strike up a more persistent note from this week or next to meet the new Romney campaign as it consolidates, though Newt has not given up yet.

Housing starts

Image via Wikipedia

Mortgage settlement was filed in court last week, and EU approved new funding for Greece. Refi is likely to remain strong on the Purchase report even as Flash data from China and Europe continues to show manufacturing stuttering under a resurgent Services number globally. The chart on the left shows Starts data with the shoe firmly on the foot, and the updated data continues to crawl a squiggly on the same shoe without a jump in sight 9 but better in small counts) which looks like one flat line in the recent graph (right)

From last week, LA Port traffic keeps declining on incoming goods down 12% in February apart from the decline because of Chines e new Year numbers , while outgoing port traffic from LA and Long Beach in TEUs was still up 4.6% also last week’s CPI  data crawled closer to the Fed’s target levels of 2% Y/Y staying at 2.2% however. Bank failure rate is catching up to previous years with 952 banks still left on the unofficial problem bank index. Calculated risk has other consolidated economic data here including one on Okun’s law with growing custom at full service restaurants looking like people are spending more on eating out and thus likely upward revisions of the pre-recovery plateau in GDP in 2011

Emerging market inflows continue at a lower clip even as US data gets more of the same , markets unwilling to give up on recovery and bond yields up sharply as money finally leaves the Fixed income markets




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This entry was posted on March 17, 2012 by in Amitonomics, Banking, Emerging Markets and tagged , , , , , , , .


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