The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy: The morning begins well, It is Jobs thursday

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Jobless claims fell 5,000 from a revised 353,000 for the week to 348,000 and the claims average took another hit in the belt with a drop to 355,000. A widely expected drop below 350,000 is next and then probably the 300,000 mark in the second half of the year. if it does, there would be reason for the Jobs report to go up from the 200k mark to 300k

The continuing claims number remains at 3.334 mln and the insured unemployment rate at 2.6%. 15 states reported an increase in Jobless claims

EIA reports continue to scare with retail demand keeping factories for downstream pdts still rankling empty lines, distillates up on a respite probably as refineries stepped out of gasoline logs. The Hopi index has been higher for November and December but then a third of the sales are still the restructured ones, so there  cannot be much more downside to this report.

The leading indicators continue to be positive and are expected to improve from 0.4% to 0.6%. Yesterday evening’s review showed China at a crossroads with the PSEs included in the state report instead of the HSBC report causing the State data to be an improvement to 51 and the HSBC data to nose down to 48. And as we publish, the Bloomberg Index too has finally completed its long climb from September 2011 to a -34.9 from -33 last week.

And the others, start feeling the crunch

The Swiss are the first in the recession zone outside the South as the Exports fall, followed by a deeper fall in imports . The German manufacturing ticked down ( unbelievably, so, says the consensus, when it seemed fairly obvious the Chines e had caught their moment of weakness for buying in the German M&A mart) to 48 much on the lines of the Chinese from a 50+ score last week. The Services PMI is still better off after a drop from 52.6 to 51.8. EMU figures thus dropped, manufacturing to its worst at 47.7 and Services fell to 48.7 on the fastest decline in New Orders

Retail Sales in London and the UK fell this month but managed to stay 1% up on the year despite the price of Oil. The Retail Sales deflator has been up 2.4% and 2.2% in the last two months. Canadians were the only ones to report growth today up 4.7%  in Retail sales in March

Yesterday’s Econ Data

One (Pre Market – Existing Home Sales)

Two (Post Market – China PMI flash))


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This entry was posted on March 22, 2012 by in Amitonomics, Banking, US and tagged , , , , , , , , , .


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