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US Economy: Worries about the “head fake” in housing data, production declines and then Bernanke speaks..

Markets shoot up knowing well enought hat the mixed housing and manufacturing data showing wweakness in consumption and housing is really not significant and that the recocery is on. The movie Hunger Games was good too, and the time difference a reason I missed the market open when the Dallas Fed Survey dipped to almost half from 17 to 10.8 and Chicago NAI fell to bnegative territory at -0.09 led by weak unemployment sub indices while the Moving average ( for three months) is a high 30 from 22 till January.

Cover of "The Hunger Games"

Cover of The Hunger Games

Survival games could very much be the cheat sheet for the new world in the teens of the new milllenium as BATS snags up its own IPO with a discovery program/ matching program malfunctiong during the IPO hour last week.  However the least problematic of all data was the Pending Home Sales Index which measures signings and the dip from 97 to 96.5 not a show of “head fake ” on the housing recovery but a consolidation of the over 10% jump from 2011 data. February 2011 was just 88% on the PHS Index. That means Existing home Sales mid April and some in Mid AMy will keep gains from 2011 and not from 2012 Q1 data as the one time jump in Nov/Dec/Jan depending on indices kept their gains, even the

New Home Sales jumped to 336,000 for December and are up above 310k for the two months of the new year. Italian Istat Consumer confidence and the German Ifo survey were unexpectedly firm in today’s releases for March and Italian confidence is especiallly heartening  And seriously, the employment conditions are improving, the Fed picking up cudgels for the U6 report and all the suspect data of 2012 in the morning speech.

Why do I think the recovery is entrenched? The consideration each data item of Jobs and housing receives, the jump in consumer revolver credit only lasting the holiday season, institutional interest coming back in distressed housing and that stay low part of the new Jobless claims number every week, they all add up esp as US business is ready to live with a 3% uptick in retail sales, a new watermark for the year after a 5% clip last year.

Bernanke specifically noted, “Importantly, despite the recent improvement, the job market remains far from normal; for example, the number of people working and total hours worked are still significantly below pre-crisis peaks, while the unemployment rate remains well above what most economists judge to be its long-run sustainable level.  Of particular concern is the large number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months.”

Read more: Bernanke Talks Up The Jobs Market – 24/7 Wall St.

The Emerging growth companies Act is near law status and Zynga is bookin gmore share sales on its 33% rise in 2012 , while arguments get underway for the Obamacare act’s universal right to healthcare “imposition” and today, whether it should be fought now or in 2015 after the event of injury to consumers under the Act’s provisions.

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One comment on “US Economy: Worries about the “head fake” in housing data, production declines and then Bernanke speaks..

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