The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy (EoD review): The Week ahead April 1, 2012 – April 7, 2012

Healthcare Opinion going to the wire

Veteran reporters commenting on Bloomberg and those who have had occassion to hear the opinion all followed the change in direction of the “consensus” on the Third day when the swing votes Judge Roberts and Judge Kennedy both looked askance and came down hard on the so called severability arguments to show their overall displeasure with some of the Act could not translate really into keeping the act in parts. Then there is that they actually do like the fact that the act ensures more Americans are covered under Health insurance so it seems like Insurers will get to keep the gains coming in 2013 but only just and the hospitals will have to suffer more inspections, verifications and costs of care. The Medicaid expansion though has been virtually uncontested.

China vs European PMI, Housing Recovery

China’s Manufacturing PMI starts off the week on Sunday itself followed by the European PMIs on Monday, the German and the EU numbers alongside the Chinese one showing the correlation and the insignificant impact of the flailing south  on the EU itself as it prepares to get into the most sensitive period of contraction where higher contraction scores from Spain and Portugal and the bigger France and Germany threaten the

BURBANK, CA - JANUARY 26:  Customers buy goods...

BURBANK, CA - JANUARY 26: Customers buy goods at a Home Depot home improvement store on January 29, 2010 in Burbank, California. The Commerce Department today reports better-than-expected U.S. economic growth with the fourth-quarter rise of the gross domestic product (GDP) at a seasonally adjusted 5.7 percent, the strongest growth since 2003. By contrast, the GDP in the first quarter of 2009 dropped at an annual rate of 6.4 percent. With news of the positive growth, the US dollar rallied to its highest level since August. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

European ecosystem with a longer, harder recession than they have planned. Spain of course has managed to get a new 5.3% deficit target but less than EUR 10 bln in  spending cuts and only EUR 6 bln in revenues as of now mean that the contraction there is likely to be key, though France has been getting more confident GDP data out in the last two quarters, shoring up the composite EU numbers.

Japan’s Tankan numbers are likely to show that the Larger firms are back in business this year but probably more all round improvement is needed.

Monday is also big in the US when the ISM numbers come out for March followed by the now critical Construction Spending data as new home sales have consolidasted at around 310k in the last two months

Auto Sales jumping to 14.5 mln for month

HyundaiIt is also the month end and if yu are following Auto Sales for March, you will be hoping to continue better exports from US manufacturers and looking at strong performance from Imports even as IHS Global insight expects the jump in March to be big enough to reassess the annual target in Car sales to 14.5 mln and Toyota already raising prices. March sales are likely to hit 1.4 mln according to led by gains at Hyundai and Volkswagen. N issan and GM remain strong while Ford maintains its last year’s sales data. Honda is back with a big jump , WSJ making up for the positive surprise in News with a tabulated sales expectations chart here

Unit Sales

Manufacturer March 2012 Forecast % Change vs. February 2012 % Change vs. March 2011
Chrysler 160,256 19.3% 31.2%
Ford 215,182 20.5% 1.4%
GM 249,887 19.4% 20.9%
Honda 145,594 32.2% 8.9%
Hyundai/Kia 126,351 31.4% 19.1%
Nissan 129,188 21.0% 6.6%
Toyota 195,298 22.5% 10.8%
Volkswagen 49,225 25.9% 33.1%
Industry 1,416,703 23.3% 13.7%

You can see the jump in numbers is over and above the high watermark for February

Apart from the big news early in the week..

The retail sales data is likely to prove the plateau of the recovery at 3% and Factory orders are expected to make for the cuts in February, while the Services Index and the Consumer Credit report corroborate the week’s biggest report in the Employment Situation report on Friday, commonly referred to as the Jobs report.

Services data for Europe and China will also be worth a comment esp to see if the strength in Investor confidence is likely to fall sharply from here.



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