The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy (Friday Blanks): Personal Income data worries are back, Chicago PMI

Personal income data rang a few alarms despite a positive disposition, that is spending for the year is up 4.1% with income only up 3.2% and that should worry anyone with economy;s recovery plans from Q1 still firmly building up hope. Consumers opening up wallets was however backed by a good 0.3% M/M increase in Wages and salaries but PCE Price index M/M is already up 0.3% and consumption spending actually up 0.8% over January. However March did see personal consumption trying to get back into the wallet size mode from some retail spending trends and that alone can keep the hopes of recovering to a 2-3% GDP growth in 2012 alive as employment increases and the housing dat are already tentative and there is hardly any purse strings or room to manouveur the interest rates left with the Fed.

Month End Friday also means the Chicago PMIs come on today. The composite at 62.2 means the Mid west kept most of the gains of new orders and employment though sub indices details take time to publish. The Mid West has shown better New Orders, Backlog, Production, Inventories  and Employment but the New Orders indices have come down from 69 in January to a equally good 63 The February data is lower than the January highs but still higher than the December numbers at which time Chicago was the only data reporting a recovering recovered recovery even as it corrected down over 2-3 months and has become an important proxy for ISM nationally again. Production is near highs at 68.6 and Inventories are jumping to 58 as Prices paid and inventory planning ( lead time for supplies ) have all jumped to a really high place between 65 and 70.

GDP data ( our Report)

Chicago PMI ( Release)

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