Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
Fiscal 2013 began with the March reports continuing to look ugly for China and the rest of Asia. While China’s State survey foretold a 53 PMI manufacturing Index up from 51 in February, the HSBC PMI which excludes some doubtful STate enterprises in its methodology turned its nose down definitely to a New Order bottom of 47.3 and a composite index of just 48.3 It does not augur well for the Global Economy that Europe which has been following Chin;s fotunes has been in an almost recession for the last 6 months led by Germany. Germany and EU PMIS follow later in the day today before US Market open
Wednesday PMIs report Services growth which has been keeping trade and GDP growth alive in China as well as Europe. Swissie is likely to have a hard time reacting to contrarian data with Retail sales falling off a cliff in February down 1.3% to 0.8% a fourth of the consensus estimate while the local MI data is againt he only one in the region to turn upward driven by last two months robust consumption when growth was decidedly anemic at below 50 in PMI data. Ists a toss whether any such Swiss growth will survive as for evry one coin in the FRench wishing well the Swiss have two in the German and things have been decidedly soft in Germany
Despite the German Employment Data, EU unemployment is likely to tip up from the 10.7% data of
January while PMI in UK is likely to come out lower to barely at 50 while German and European Manufacturing PMIs at 47.7 and 48/49 are likely to hit rock bottom for Marhcha nd the next two months.
India’s 54.7 score predicated a fall from last quarter’s 6.9% industrial and GDP growth to further lower marks and renewed pressure ont he last BRICS economy to start softening Interest rates even as BRICS firm up into a closely knit G20 core firmly because of Chinese predilection for local currency led bilateral trade growth. However India is hit by a large import bill that is slightly inflexible to oil prices and ensures sharper step reversals in the currency and trade economics of the sub continent every three-four years, taking the rupee down in one week again from 48 to 51 levels.
The Yuan has stopped rising beyond 6.3 and may settle down as out outgoing Premier drives inthe unimportance of that rate on US Economic prospects. Thus we roll into April 2012 and results season barely weeks away showing up strong growth in US and European Financials and businesses with a global franchise.