The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy ex. Autos: The ISM positive surprise

Pardon the silly one(pun), but the ISM data includes every success story of the Midwest and still is not the same sentiment as the Auto sales will get tomorrow, please read thus tempered and shaped by us, and tomorrow the Bigger Bang from consumption led sales reports growing US almost to pre crisis levels, today alas it is in the middle of a faltering recovery.

Manufacturing is back to lend the back bone required for a big bang US recovery, holding a 54.5 on New Orders and a 54 on Exports after dropping 0.4 points on New Orders and 5.5 points from 60 on the Exports. One could say time to tone down as the recovery looks to be in the other direction but hey the 54-55 levels are reserved for only the best performing Economies in March 2012, ready to spawn growth and the Services number might jump off from a higher platform because of this strength in manufacturing, Employment sub indices up 3 point, Production, Backlogs and inventories all doing well. The composite numer for Manufacturing a 53.4, while the Midwest  Chicago PMI Index is up at 63

Treasuries in northern Olympia, Greece.

Treasuries in northern Olympia, Greece. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Construction spending though did take the wind out of the recovery taking the year on year growth down from 7.1% to 5.8% down 1.1% for the month a negative surprise of almost 2% bu while Single family continued dying a slow death multifamily condominiums ( ideal for rentals ) spends grew 2.0 % on top of the 2.6% January snipe. Public spending leveled out its January gains .

Construction stocks could give out any time and I am saying so because the money leaving Treasuries has been found to side with Bill Gross, PIMCO and the Total Return Fund, meaning equities do not have to hold the candle for Corporate bonds, high yields and other bond bets to come around as Bill is hoping very publicly after a 2.88% score for Q1 making him the best of the best again, which he wants to keep for 2012. 10-Y Treasuries yields are still near 2.25% up a cliff of 25 bp last week despite a Friday look back. The 3 month and 6 month auctions did not devolve much on the dealers, and investors bit another $70 bln int he two maturities at 0.075% and 0.14%, a good high score. The 20 odd PDs got only 40% of the issuance.

 

 

 

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This entry was posted on April 2, 2012 by in Amitonomics, US and tagged , , , , , , , .

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