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US Economy: A reason for a bad Jobs report (March 2012, Good Friday)

The BLS Employment Situation Report on Friday was revised to 277,000 for January and 240,000 for Februaary , the latter being an upward revision of 20,000. However Non Farm payrolls for March were another steep redenomination of expectations with the 120,000 reported half the expectations of a repeat of February and worth every rumor on the closed market day for a QE3 as the disappointing number with 87,897,000 non participating unemployed workers at an all time high, leading the unemployment rate down to 8.2%.

The number is especially a surprise since the Employment sub indices in quite a few of the production reports were a big positive including the ISM manufacturing and non manufacturing nos. but a hint probably from the Midwest and a couple of regional indices like the Chicago PMI where the employment number did not hold. Also, the jobless claims number has been down since July 2011. Also, i’d have to remind you that after the good 3 months just gone, people seem to have forgotten that we haven’t had such tied correlation between ADP and NFP payrolls for a long time and now we are back where ADP Payrolls are up 209,000 , Public sector jhobs are down only 1000 and NFP Payrolls are up only half the 200k number in private payrolls, probably related to methodology and steeping you in hopes of an upward revision a regular feature of the NFP number

The number of jobs added is about 30,000 less than the no. of workforce joining the ranks and the no. of labor force leaving the ranks as they tapered off the long term unemployment benefits and are not looking for a job climbed to 164,000 according to the 8.2% unemployment rate. The official employed as a percentage of Population is a low 58.5% but the participation rate of 63.5% is more than healthy. Involuntary part time jobs ticked down by 400,000 to 7.7 mln as Long term unemployed are down 1.4 mln to 5.3 mln from 2 years ago. 2.4 mln mere not counted unemployed because they did not apply in the last 4 weeks. Manufacturing, Leisure and Hospitality and HEalthcare reported the most job additions at 37k, 37k and 26k.

Credit intermediation servces picked up 11,000 new workers too but otherwise the banking sector was a blank. Services jobs increased mostly from the hiring of 23,000 building/public works contractors ( services to buildings and dwellings) Average hourly earnings are up 2.1% on year.

This week’s Reports on the Economy:

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This entry was posted on April 6, 2012 by in Amitonomics, US.


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