Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
The good news that was expected to come from the Jobs report did not make it a very Happy Easter morning today. However the robust Vehicle loans kept up Consumer credit, rising by another $8.7 bln in magic February after January increase was revised upward to $18.6 bln. In what we regard as a potent indicator of a sane recovery the jump in retail sales was not linked to any increased offtake in revolving credit as the increase in Jobs was not above the watermark of 150k people entering the workforce. The birth death adjustment for the week was +90,000 and another 164000 out of work people no longer counted as the employment rate made it down to 8.2%. The revolver contraction was 4.4% in January and 3.3% in February, Non revolving credit $1.723 T and mostly credit card debt in Revolver Credit of $798.6 Bln Credit card debt rates are down 1% on regular and 1.6% on late accounts from 2007. Car Loan LTVs are also down from 95% in 2007 to below 80% in 2011/ 2012 , the report not including Car loan rates and LTV since Q1 2011 a $1600 lower per car
And in a funny enough network story, Obama is unlikely to pursue banning of guns in his second term but the gun industry does not think so.
Retail Sales report on April 16 for the month of March, while Housing starts data reports for February in the same week. After the Easter weekend though we have the PPI and the US International trade data towards the end of the week on Thursday and the Retail inflation on Friday. The Beige book reports should make things interesting mid week apart from the Wholesale Trade report on Tuesday. otherwise the week has more of the MBA Purchase report, the EIA Petroleum and NatGas reports with NAt Gas still a few pennies above the $2 mark but unlikely for long, and the Deficit report of the Government on Wednesday 11th for March when Deficits climb to more run of the mill 400% odd Debt to GDP ratios the US is budgeted for currently. And yes, the QE3 rumor is back after the atrocious Jobs report so that will be thre on each morning open for the S&P 500 and the DJIA
Thursday’s reports on the International Trade, PPI and Jobless claims start off the market run at 8.30 AM ET. Retail sales dayta on tuesday might contain a slurry of growth from Easter weekend grocery purchases.