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US Economy (EoD Review) : The Week ahead April 8 – April 15, 2012

Consumer Credit reports a rise of $8.7 bln, fall in revolver

ARLINGTON, VA - JANUARY 19:  The covers of the...

ARLINGTON, VA - JANUARY 19: The covers of the U.S. Army's 'Generating Health & Discipline in the Force' report (R), a follow-up to the Army's 'Health Promotion/Risk Reduction/Suicide Prevention' report (L), published in July 2010, are seen on a presentation board during a press briefing at the Pentagon January 19, 2012 in Arlington, Virginia. Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army Gen. Peter Chiarelli conducted the briefing and spoke on the details of the Army's 'Generating Health & Discipline in the Force' report. The Army suicide statistics for calendar year 2011 was also discussed. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

The good news that was expected to come from the Jobs report did not make it a very Happy Easter morning today. However the robust Vehicle loans kept up Consumer credit, rising by another $8.7 bln in magic February after January increase was revised upward to $18.6 bln. In what we regard as a potent indicator of a sane recovery the jump in retail sales was not linked to any increased offtake in revolving credit as the increase in Jobs was not above the watermark of 150k people entering the workforce.  The birth death adjustment for the week was +90,000 and another 164000 out of work people no longer counted as the employment rate made it down to 8.2%. The revolver contraction was 4.4% in January and 3.3% in February, Non revolving credit $1.723 T and mostly credit card debt in Revolver Credit of $798.6 Bln Credit card debt rates are down 1% on regular and 1.6% on late accounts from 2007. Car Loan LTVs are also down from 95% in 2007 to below 80% in 2011/ 2012 , the report not including Car loan rates and LTV since Q1 2011 a $1600 lower per car

And in a funny enough network story, Obama is unlikely to pursue banning of guns in his second term but the gun industry does not think so.

The week ahead


LONDON, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 06:  A woman walks ...

LONDON, ENGLAND - DECEMBER 06: A woman walks past a shop offering a relocation sale on Regent Street with less than three weeks before Christmas Day on December 6, 2011 in London, England. A report from the British Retail Consortium has indicated slow consumer spending in the run up to Christmas. The consortium reported that retail sales grew by just 0.7% in November; which was the weakest growth since May 2011. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

Retail Sales report on April 16 for the month of March, while Housing starts data reports for February in the same week. After the Easter weekend though we have the PPI and the US International trade data towards the end of the week on Thursday and the Retail inflation on Friday. The Beige book reports should make things interesting mid week apart from the Wholesale Trade report on Tuesday. otherwise the week has more of the MBA Purchase report, the EIA Petroleum and NatGas reports with NAt Gas still a few pennies above the $2 mark but unlikely for long, and the Deficit report of the Government on Wednesday 11th for March when Deficits climb to more run of the mill 400% odd Debt to GDP ratios the US is budgeted for currently. And yes, the QE3 rumor is back after the atrocious Jobs report so that will be thre on each morning open for the S&P 500 and the DJIA

Thursday’s reports on the International Trade, PPI and Jobless claims start off the market run at 8.30 AM ET. Retail sales dayta on tuesday might contain a slurry of growth from Easter weekend grocery purchases.






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This entry was posted on April 6, 2012 by in Amitonomics, Retail Lifestyle, US and tagged , , , , , , , .


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