The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Economy (EoD Review): The week ahead April 16 – April 23, 2012

A Wells Fargo bank on College Avenue in Berkel...

A Wells Fargo bank on College Avenue in Berkeley. This branch office is typical of older Wells Fargo facilities in inner-city areas in the state of California. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Things could not have started better for the US Economy than with the Bank Earning Season’s opening day laurels going to neither of the winners but to the comeback of the mortgage market. With $160 bln of mortgages originated in a single quarter between them both JP Morgan and Wells Fargo had a lot to thank the Obama administration and the HARP program, allowing them a ready book of profitable customers who refinance with them at a 50-75 bp better spread . Foreclosure applications have spun out in Q1 but by all signs, a 370 day foreclosure cycle means most of the foreclosures with losses on each in principal will happen in 2013 than now.

Meanwhile, Internationally we have more jitters from Europe in the coming week as Italy drives home the point of its recovery with its trade data on Monday, followed by the EU trade data as a whole (EA-27) and Tuesday prints the inflation data for UK and the EU and the Business Confidence Data for Germany which likely is still depressed.

US retail sales are likely to print above the year’s new watermark of 3% while Investor Interest in the US is on the agenda on Monday itself much before the week’s trek into the Housing crisis begins the tour with the Housing Market index on Monday, Housing starts data on Tuesday, likely still on multi-family homes, MBA Purchase report which already shows a 70% share of Refi, Existing Home sales Thursday and the Fed Balance Sheet that can continue to attrite MBS buys from the $2.9 T balance sheet

Otherwise it is yet more CPI and PPI data from international shores all week and even Asian trade data before the PMI tour begins in the week of April 22.

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