The Banking and Strategy Initiative

Chillin' out till it needs to be funded

US Economy: Seriously, whose fault is it! ADP Payrolls jump only 120k, Chesapeake burnt and the Facebook IPO begins

ADP Payroll data put paid to all the anticipation for the Jobs report even as today’s Economic data seemed to resonate with the opening of markjets across the pond and talks with China hit new firewater shortage on both sides as China’s improving prospects did not seemingly translate inoto higher offtake of real commodities despite the winddown on storage bound copper thru re-exports and sales in March would have encouraged a new bull run on Copper just yesterday.

The MBA Purchase Index was up 2.9% but by now the 4 week average has already lost traction and refi continued to lose from a high 70% share with a 0.7% reduction in the index. H8 credit data release for March 2012 shows consumer credit expanding for the first time in 2012, but raising questions on banks easing of credit rules for unsecured loans while mortgages have not picked up. Commercial and industrial Loans are up 8% while Treasury and Agency issues increased the most at 14% HELOCs and CREs are the only reassuring winddowns in place in the H8 report too but then we are issuingmore 3 and 6 month bills than anything else and would be out with a Floating rate Treasury tomorrow.

European Bank results have been so bad that UBS has come out shining with its boring wealth proposition as the only surviving business model this quarter, StanChart put paid  on Emerging market hopes witha tepid single digit rise in income.

What we need, is more serious credit and more housing completions which remain way behind starts and multi function units and rentals coninue to give some hope. The hope from US economic data however is unlikely to last today’s market moves, yesterday’s ISM data forgotten even as Chesapeake is burnt down 9% on only $1.1 bln in personal transgressions of a wayward CEO/founder as Zuckerberg gets into gear for driving the last stick shift road show from May 7 till the IPO on May 18


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