Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
India managed to maintain last april’s exports value that was a pretty big jump from April 2010 at a 20% growth but there was no growth. Auto sales have started trickling in weak though markets and currency having over corrected were more comfortable rising back than staying down. Nifty stays near 4850 levels at the close, the bears only seeming out of breath, not done yet.
Maruti’s downtick in sales or the recent spiralling costs continue to worry the behemoth as the Yen also rushes up to cover its global strength to 71. In that case however, the Yen Yuan trade will likely cut down the aged triggers appreciating a “deflated and downtrodden” currency like the Yen as China welcomes Japanese trade to grow its yuan tentacles and rejuvenate larger ties beteen China and Japan.
Indian exports survived the duties on Gold and the clampdown on Gems trade. Though Gold and Gems are lareg $20 B categories in monthly trade in 2011 and hit by a downtick of just less than 50%, seem to appreciate distinctly standalone cycles for the rupee including Laundering in the Gems trade. The Auto Sales in the meantime seem still likely to cross 3 million for the year if not 3.5 M despite Maruti’s losing share.
Most BRIC and ASEAN nations reported an export contraction in the mean time in April incl China and Japan as shared earlier and South Africa here the trade deficit for April ballooned to ZAR 6B (Google it!)
China’s Export data is likely to bounce back in May from data of the first fortnight. Indian export groth ould be fine as long as it remains above $25 B or near the number as the May PMI came in really strong compared to global oes at 54.8 showing the strength of the 5-6% groth number as we return at our worst to the Hindu rate of growth with Q1 bottomlines still up in double digits and topline up by 20%. China’s PMI however dropped drastically by 4 points in May to 46.5 on HSBC Indices and 50 on the Official PMI.
Trade Deficit for April 2012 has come down to $13.2B but imports at $37.9 B could definitely trend don more. The falling prices of Oil might even bring in the number lower as we do buy 3 mbpd each day ( of which 500000 bpd still comes from iran , but the number is down drastically)
Disclaimer and Information: My analysis and commentary reflects my own global trade investments in Stocks, Commodities and currency