The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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The Thursday Fed Update: Philly confirms its not June for US

Strictly speaking after the fOMC I should probably not bother with the EOD Thursday update but I stuck to my guns, again.  Treasury holdings are up again by $3.5 B and that means a $1.87 T store of Bills added to by investors on the Fed Assets. However others have posited that the new QE extension of $265 B will empty the coffers of the Fed on the short end so one wonders if there is another data point for the short term beneficiary holdings of the Fed which the Fed can lend in the Lehman type tail events that do happen and if anyone else can get that for me it would do wonders to our understanding here. Unlikely if this store is not available for lending though, so it should last a couple of other such QE extensions which the FEd seems to need the way these 2013 forecasts are crashing all around the US and even in Asia, ever looking for a new bottom and that just might happen in July.

The Philly Fed data ruled that out for the US too as it confirm a range of bad expectations data thru June , and not leaving much hope or bread on the table.   Meanwhile the week gone by also saw retail gas(oline) inventories rising as consumers refused to pick up the groceries from yonder after the pump refused to pass on the new prices Retail sales are poised at 2-3% again The Philly Fed came to an abysmal -16.6 on the Eastern seaboard, thrice the drop from may’s -5.8

Reserve Bank credit also rose and the June results will be heartening for strengthening performance in the US Banking system on conventional commercial and personal lending products. The final number from the H.4.1 report is $2.873 T

The Hoiusing Price Index was again up 0.8% and regional differences remain acute while the recovery is yet to begin. M2 as a heavy run on $59.2 B finally turning up the curve which was a bit too precariously hanging near the 4% rate despite the history of QE in the past three years

The 30Y TIPS Auctions are pointing to an expected softness on a lower amount. The bonds was a reopening of the Feb issue with a 0.520% yield much lower than the issue coupon of 0.750%





This entry was posted on June 22, 2012 by in Amitonomics, Banking, Retail Lifestyle, US.


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