The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Morning Report: Global futures down again, June data not the cheer

NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 28:  Protesters associa...

NEW YORK, NY – OCTOBER 28: Protesters associated with Occupy Wall Street march past a Citibank branch in Manhattan on October 28, 2011 in New York City. Hundreds of protesters delivered 6,000 letters from angry bank customers to the headquarters of Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase during the march. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)

Markets will open weak and courtesy financials may start back on an even keel in the afternoon unless there is additional bad news in the markets then. Expected, no hope from the housing efforts yet in the New home Sales data. Monday is busy in the last week of the year but an even keel is expected on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index which had fallen to 0.11 in May and the Dallas Fed will be reporting some end of the recovery kind of news as well. it seems to me however, the deal business is picking up and been much busier in the last to weeks, though China’s Shanghai and Shenzen exchanges pulled wool on Hang Seng’s eyes and took 67% of the Asian business( that is probably down 90% over last year Q1). Manchester United and Formula1 racing went to Singapore for  couple of million in IPO cash. Oil is trading below 80 ( $90 for Brent) and Silver and Gold are aiting for China and the commodities as the Dollar rests at 82 on the Dollar Index

US retail comeback story is back too with Macy’s, Gap and Walgreen’s still in for a reward for their positive ticks from last month. Target could still be buoyant as it refuses to do as bad as the industry but the best bets are still Bank of America who haven’t been posting bad news and Wells Fargo who would be expected to repeat their Q1 domination of the fresh mortgages rolled this quarter. Next week, analysis would have more data on the big winners from the Hedge fund monthly reports.

Microsoft, Google and Intel are up on the year but Ford and Pfizer are way faster and still more attractive. Facebook options are still a good play even though up 30 and 60% for the year Spanish banks are due for a downgrade in the next few minutes as the Euro trades to a 1.24 level going to 123

Bank results according to the Dealogic tables look at a 9% fall in equities underwriting and 6% in Fixed income trading over Q1. Fixed income trading is still up 33% over last year as commodity plays volumes die out in Q2 Bond markets apparently won’t last the year as Bond underwriting fell 40% from Q1 though we widely expected Bond markets to revive the Bank return on equities challenge.

The latest analysis from Barclays and WSJ post Jeffries results. Jeffries posted a 31% higher on year score in Bond Trading and has also been visible in larger sales in the Advisory lines BofA is keeping most of the gains of the Q1 rally to $8 yesterday and is expected to post higher revenues in the quaarter. JP Morgan could well report more than $1 in EPS despite the Whaler’s chaos all May and Goldman Sachs according to the latest estimates is reporting $2.25 in EPS including all downgrades already committed this week which are not expected to change their credit costs except maybe at the very short end

The Dollar has gained more than 20% against most emerging market currencies in 2012

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