The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Morning Report: Redbook report down to 2.3% for June, Case Schiller up 1.3%

The Case Shiller Index, even the Non Seasonally adjusted National figures were up for the third consecutive month, last month’s 17 month record broken at -2.6% annual difference improving further to -1.9% for the NSA data. The Seasonally adjusted data was up 0.7% much better than expectations but since in April, it should have adjusted a positive offset, it probably could still be better. Of course, it was as Robert Shiller personally told everyone on the networks and is too little at this stage in the recovery. The indices are still where they were for May 2003 (10 City index) and December 2002 (20 City index) LA, San Diego, Boston, Washington and New York continue to be at the top despite New York dropping since October 2011 and Atlanta, Las Vegas, Cleveland and Detroit continue to languish at the bottom. Las Vegas has been improving for the last four months on the trot

Recovery is hardly even. Atlanta home market for example has been deteriorating since March 2011 esp in the higher Tier, down 10% from its 2011 peak, the Low Tier down 20% and the mid Tier down 25% from the same peak, letting the SA Index in Atlanta slide 17% . The San Diego market priced three times higher in absolute dollars, is down barely 2% from March 2011, only 1% don in the middle Tier. The New York MSA (Metro Sales Area) has lost much lesser in the 5 years since 2007 peaks but has lost 3% since March 2011 ( also thrice Atlanta values in Absolute Dollars)

In Boston, recovery is still on in earnest, but the overall index is still down 1% from March 2011 and only in the Higher Tiers.

The Condominium indices broadly comparable to the Multi family unit data from the NHA are down 40% in LA from mid 2006, 60% in Chicago and only 10% in Boston and 15% in New York since their peak in Mid 2006

Redbook sales in the week of June 23 are likely to be reliable indicators of a bad June as per the construction of the index and 2% yoy groth is a little worrying. But robust growth as it is, and on the last trading days of H1 this eek the report is likely to be welcomed especially as the Case Shiller Index is quite the turnaround an dthe three month run a successful streak after 2 years






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