The Banking and Strategy Initiative

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US Week Ahead (July 08, 2012 – July 14, 2012): Consumer Credit, Trade Data and Global currency downtime

The Currency wars are yet on though, at this point with weak US data the Fed would not think of interrupting ( as it needs to raise more bonds) the Dollar’s big run against some key global currencies. The US citizens ofcourse sooner or later actually lose as the currency refuses to weaken on overseas interest but the Japanese would be a happy lot if the Yen remains weak as a result above 80-81 levels even as restructuring continues making domestic prices even tougher for consumption in the Japanese Economy

The Fed Consumer Credit report is out on Monday and the Trade data mid week compares ongoing export strength vis-a-vis consumption led growth in imports. With elections upon us in four months, there is unlikely to be any respite from the Fed but equities may not be without cheer as results begin

More international data including Japanese Orders and Chinese Producer inflation gives international currencies a chance to reassess their currency direction vis-a-vis the Dollar wall, and in trade Chinese currency continues to assess the paper agreements it has signed to convert each bilateral trade into Chinese yuan giving each nation comfort to carry out trade on a pegged benchmark

Global trade from Asia is slated to grow to half the global trade flos from a third today led by a boom in each Asian trade capacity esp India, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore and China and demand from the Middle East and Africa with each nation individually transacting in Trillions a three fold jump for India itself

Meanwhile the US budget deficit is down almost 10% on year and led by hopes on an April surplus in the Budget, July may also be in line for one of the smallest deficits in the US Budget.

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday could hold a ready down tick for the clear writing on No required additional QE as the Feds are wont to adding to low market expectations for the week Also a week of respite from Store sales and Housing data leaving markets to assess incoming Earnings reports


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