Chillin' out till it needs to be funded
The moderate recovery underway in the data seems to wax and wane according to its distance from a scheduled
Fed meeting with bad new home sales last week ignored as the Beige Book and now the Personal Income shows a sudden “spurt” in most districts. meanwhile the Obama Romney ad wars are keeping the remaining campaign interesting after Romney’s decision to fly out was caught on the wall. Check the WSJ live site for all the ads running up the heat today.
The Personal income has grown 0.5% a 3 times higher score thaan the best in this year. Though the consumer spend is still a dud , scoring a big Fat ZERO, PCE inflation is also looking good after the disaster in May at 1.5% again and 0.1% increase M/M meanwhile last month’s stars in retail and Gasoline spends have left the fortunes of Americans stranded as that burst of Consumer credit and spending on Gasoline are conspicuous by their absence in the next two months. HOever the concomitant Employment Cost Index also rose 0.5% for the month and is up 1.7% y/y meaning higher wages for employees and probably, given the tight fisted three years, higher spending in July/August esp imports.
US Q2 GDP came below par at 1.5% and the Direction is definitely not better any time in 2012 after Q4 2011 peaked out in recovery strength and the $48 B housing settlement refused to bring any cheers to the housing market that would be noticeable in the data
Bernanke’s critical FOMC meeting where voting by 7 present Governors of FRB and 5 of the Regional Feds’ Presidents would be voting on more or less stimulus for US just got underway. The dollar has been trending down from its highs of 84 with the resurgent Euro also ready to duck a few if there is more liquidity coming The Consumer Confidence data and the small yet powerful positive moves in the Case Schiller HPI will also help sentiment ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC announcement of a dud/more bond buying rollovers. It could also follow the eCB into cutting interest rates on money parked with the Fed.
Meanwhile KKR reported a good jump in its Economic Net Income ( Profits from Balance Sheet transactions , excl restructuring costs ) to 13 cents and UBS proved it was ready to be nationalised and probably thrown out with the bathwater with another $50m profit for $7 B in revenues. Deutsche Bank matched the bank’s 60% dull thud with $9.77B in revenues and $800m in profits for the quarter but saved the scrip with a job cut announcement that would take 1900 paychecks off the table. Non interest Costs were $8B for the six months and $4.27b for the quarter ended June 2012